If presumptive Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the presidential election in November, Iran could suddenly turn from a bullish driver for oil prices into a bearish factor if it resumes up to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil exports. Currently, there is a consensus among analysts and international agencies that the oil market is tightening and will continue to tighten, lifting oil prices through next year. Oil demand is expected to rise next year by between 5 million bpd and 7 million bpd compared to this year’s lows, according to OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA)—in the absence of a mass return to lockdowns. The OPEC+ group is set to further ease its collective production cuts. In theory, the current expectations of supply and demand in 2021 are bullish for oil prices. Yet, the market shouldn’t discount one political and geopolitical factor that could upend current […]