Add this to your already long list of 2020 oddities: Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to experience their steepest drop in modern history while the world remains on track to mark its second-hottest, if not hottest, year. The two facts demonstrate the relentless pace of climate change and the extreme measures we need to take to slow it down. It’s a perverse race: The later we cut emissions, the faster the planet warms. Right now, it’s one humanity is losing.
Global Warming
Global average temperature is projected to be as much as 0.75C higher in 2020 than it was in 1980
While temperatures can vary from one year to another, the trend is clear: Nine of the 10 hottest years on record have happened during the 21st century.
The temperature in Death Valley, Calif., registered 54.4C (129.9F) on Aug. 17, likely the hottest in recorded history
The pandemic lockdowns and the dramatic decline in economic activity that followed will reduce emissions this year by an estimated 8%. But the level of carbon dioxide will continue to climb as long as humanity continues to add it to the atmosphere.
Emissions need to come down to zero by midcentury to keep warming below 1.5C. That will require a 7% decline every year during this decade.
Even 1.5C of warming will render certain parts of the world unrecognizable. If emissions instead rise or stay flat, the picture gets disastrous.
“We’re running an experiment on our planet,” says Zeke Hausfather, the director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute. “If we continue to muddle through, there’s a risk that we might end up with a bad roll of the climate dice.”
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world. This year, the region is on track for its worst wildfire season in recorded history, toppling a record set in 2019, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Parts of Siberia experienced temperatures 10C above average in May
Not all these wildfires are new. Some were thought to have gone out after temperatures dropped last winter instead continued to smolder under the snow, fueled by methane deposits and fed by peat. Once warm weather returned, last year’s fires reignited.