The recovery of fracking operations in the US is happening largely thanks to an unusually high inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs), which is strong enough to sustain the current level of fracking without the industry adding more rigs to expand drilling deep into 2021, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. After DUCs run out, however, rig activity in the five key oil regions needs to be in the 280-300 range to maintain flat oil output. Actual rig activity today is almost 50% lower than that requirement, but the industry still has about two to three-quarters of leverage, based on the current DUC count, to achieve a smooth transition from a DUC-driven activity phase to a regular operations mode. The Permian Basin, where the recovery in fracking has been most pronounced, can still accommodate 13 months of activity at last month’s pace. With a normal DUC-to-fracking ratio of about […]