Peak oil was supposed to have arrived a decade ago, but then the US tight oil boom spoiled the party. Can looking into the rear vision mirror now help us understand what is likely to happen from here? We will find out by going through the last 30 years of production by continent, starting with North America: Mexico tipped over into decline 15 years ago and is producing at half its 2004 peak. Mexico is now a net oil importer. Canadian production, mostly from oil sands, continues to steadily increase. US conventional production is in a long downtrend from its 1973 high. The recent uptick is from deepwater fields in the Gulf of Mexico, which have a capex per barrel developed approaching US$20/bbl. Tight oil production, which is almost exclusively a US phenomenon due to a combination of geology, drilling costs and taxation regime, was still in steep uptrend […]