(1) Pre-Covid .. Fig 1: Oil production and peak years Production peaked 2015 due to Venezuela’s production collapse. Brazil’s production has not yet peaked but is unlikely to offset Venezuela’s decline. All other countries together are on a bumpy production plateau for the last 20 years. Fig 2: Oil consumption peaked 2014 Production vs. consumption Sorted by net exports (difference between production and consumption) Fig 3: Venezuela last peak was in 2006, since then net exports are down to 560 kb/d The US imposed sanctions on Venezuela since 2006 but the oil sector was most hit by E.O. 13808 (Aug 2017) and 13850 (Jan 2019) in which PdVSA properties under US jurisdiction were blocked and transactions prohibited. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10715.pdf Fig 4: Venezuela’s oil passing through the Indian Ocean? 7 months after leaving the JOSE terminal in Venezuela, crude oil tanker SAINT MARCELLA appeared at anchorage outside PORT LOUIS […]