Even before Covid-19, the World Bank had lowered its projections for global growth in the 10 years that began in 2020. The pandemic is exacerbating that trend, raising the prospect of a “lost decade” ahead, the World Bank said Tuesday, as it also cut its forecasts for the coming year. The bank’s semiannual Global Economic Prospects report attributes the long-term downgrade to lower trade and investment caused by uncertainty over the pandemic, along with disruptions in education that will hamper gains in labor productivity.

“If history is any guide, unless there is substantial reform, we think the global economy is headed for a decade of disappointing growth outcomes,” Ayhan Kose, the bank’s acting vice president for equitable growth and financial institutions, said in an interview. GDP, percentage change from previous yearSource: World BankNote: Data for 2020 are estimates; 2021 and 2022 areprojections. EMDE refers to emerging-market anddeveloping economies.

Before the pandemic, the bank projected that potential global growth between 2020 and 2029 would slow to a yearly average of 2.1%, from 2.5% in the previous decade, as a result of aging populations and lower productivity growth. On Tuesday the bank lowered its projection to 1.9%. Potential output assumes the world economy is operating at full employment and capacity.

The World Bank said the global economy is expected to grow 4% this year after contracting 4.3% in 2020. That 2021 projection is 0.2 percentage point lower than it forecast last June, reflecting the resurgence of the coronavirus and renewed restrictions on economic activity.For emerging-market and developing nations, the World Bank now sees growth averaging 3.3% a year from 2020 to 2029, down from its 4.0% forecast before the pandemic and 5.0% during the previous decade. The World Bank’s mission is to reduce poverty through lending and advice to developing countries.

“The world can’t wait for everyone to be vaccinated to inoculate the global economy against another lost decade for growth,” Mr. Kose said. “That means policymakers need to act and act aggressively to get ahead of the pandemic.” He called for investments to improve technology, health care, education and the environment, as well as improvements in governance and debt transparency, particularly in emerging and developing economies.