The future of tight oil output in the US will depend in large part on future development of Permian Basin resources in Texas and New Mexico. I have developed nine scenarios for future Permian basin tight oil output based on 3 levels of technically recoverable resources (TRR) and 3 different future oil price scenarios. These are summarized in the chart below. Figure 1 For the chart above I use the following abbreviations: T75 represents a TRR of 75 Gb, E64 means the economically recoverable resource (ERR) is 64 Gb, W184 is short for total well completions of 184 thousand wells, and P75 indicates an Oil Price scenario with a maximum real Brent Oil Price of $75/bo in constant 2019 US$. The details on the oil price scenarios are discussed later in the post. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has several studies on tight oil resources in the Permian […]