Oil rose toward $63 a barrel with investment banks and traders predicting the market will tighten further and push prices higher. Futures in New York gained 1.3% on Tuesday after climbing more than 4% in the previous session. The market is heading toward what could be the tightest quarter since at least 2000, according to Morgan Stanley, while Socar Trading SA sees global benchmark Brent hitting $80 this year as the glut of inventories built up during the Covid-19 pandemic is drained by the summer.
The loss of oil output after the big freeze in the U.S. will also help the market firm as much of the world emerges from lockdowns, according to Trafigura Group. Fuel flows from Asia to the U.S. have gained after the cold blast left some of the biggest refineries facing a slow and messy restart.
Oil has surged this year after Saudi Arabia pledged to unilaterally cut 1 million barrels a day in February and March, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicting the rally will accelerate as demand outpaces global supply. Russia and Riyadh, however, will next week once again head into an OPEC+ meeting with differing opinions about adding more crude to the market.
“The positive momentum continues in the oil complex, with investors unabashedly predisposed to a bullish view,” said Stephen Innes, global chief global market strategist at Axi. “There is far more optimism than fear.”