Caution has given way to the overly optimistic sentiment of late 2020, with most energy agencies cutting their estimates of 2021 crude demand. According to an industry consensus, global crude demand will increase by 5.5-6mbpd, implying that a full return to pre-COVID demand levels will require several years to take place. The underlying question whether crude output levels can actually follow this demand growth this year has been growing in importance, steep backwardation on the Brent curve might suggest has serious qualms about it. With divergent trends abounding, Middle Eastern national oil companies have opted for nuance after the January-February price increases. As usual, Saudi Arabia has led the way, rolling over all of its February 2021 OSPs into March completely unchanged. Graph 1. Spreads for Brent-M1, Brent-M2 and Brent-M3 in 2020-2021 (USD per barrel). Source: S&P Global Platts. The robustness of Asian demand remains a key gauge for […]