Kazakhstan meticulously studied the lessons of the 2014/2015 oil slump and has so far survived the last 12 months’ market depression with legislative and executive poise. Though still heavily dependent on oil revenues, the Kazakh authorities have seen the tenge depreciate over the course of 2020, digesting most of the COVID-triggered domestic shocks. Thanks to a traditionally low level of indebtedness (around 19% before COVID hit in, currently around 24% of GDP) and substantial international reserves, Astana still has a lot of leeway to restart economic growth in 2021. Pinning its hopes on the pandemic’s soonest end, Kazakhstan will be seeking to leave the production-curbing period of its OPEC+ participation behind and maximize output from its Kashagan-Tengiz-Karachaganak trio to the highest extent possible. All the while Kazakhstan’s short-to-mid term production prospects look staggering, its long-term ambitions remain mired in doubt and speculation. Impossible as it is to guarantee the […]