This year’s rally in oil prices brings back an all-too-familiar question for the oil market and the OPEC+ group: Will U.S. shale come back faster than expected to ruin the alliance’s efforts to manage supply? Most publicly-traded U.S. shale firms continue to vow strict capital discipline. They promise that any excess cash flow will go to additional payouts to shareholders, who have seen years of meager returns while the shale patch was chasing drilling and production records. However, there is a group of shale producers who could spoil the OPEC+ plans for oil market management again, producing more than the market and forecasters currently expect. This is the group of the smaller privately held oil firms benefiting from higher oil prices as their primary way of generating cash is increased production. Those closely held producers also benefit from the fact that they are not punished by the stock market […]