Frelimo bet the country on gas – and has just lost the bet. The Frelimo leadership was dazzled by the gas, and believed Mozambique would be like Abu Dhabi, Qatar, or Kuwait. Gas would make the elite fabulously wealthy and also trickle down to ordinary people. Poverty and inequality are increasing, but there was no reason to spend money on rural development because the gas bonanza would end poverty. Of course, the elites could take their share early, as with the $2 bn secret debt in 2012. The gas bonanza would benefit everyone by 2020, delayed to 2025, and then to 2030. The people would believe the dreams. But in Cabo Delgado they did not, and an insurgency began in 2017 – over growing poverty and inequality, as well as political and economic exclusion. There is very broad agreement that initially al Shabaab was local people with local leadership. […]