When Iranian diplomats resume talks with Western officials to revive a battered nuclear deal, one name will stand out on the list of individuals Tehran wants removed from the U.S. sanctions list: Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s president-elect. The 60-year-old hard-line judge, who won Friday’s presidential election in Iran, was sanctioned two years ago by the Trump administration for his close ties to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. As Iran’s president-elect, Mr. Raisi has emerged in a pivotal role that could determine the fate of the 2015 multination accord.
His mentor, Mr. Khamenei, supports the talks as part of efforts to unshackle Iran’s economy from U.S. sanctions. In a televised election debate earlier this month, Mr. Raisi said his administration would “be committed to the [nuclear deal] as an agreement that was approved by the supreme leader.”
But while Mr. Raisi is expected to agree to reimposing constraints on Iran’s nuclear program, he is seen as a more confrontational adversary to the West than his predecessor, current President Hassan Rouhani. Analysts anticipate Mr. Raisi will be even more resistant to American efforts to curtail Iran’s military activities in the Middle East.
“There is going to be continuity in some areas, like the nuclear deal,” said Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, senior research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute. “But in terms of a broader posture towards the West, Raisi is not going to make the same kind of commitment that Rouhani made in terms of cooperation and engagement.”
After weeks of talks, European, Iranian and U.S. officials have made slow progress toward resurrecting the 2015 deal. Some involved in the Vienna discussions say an agreement could come together when talks resume next month if Tehran offers concessions, such as accepting that hundreds of U.S. sanctions, including on alleged human-rights offenders—including Mr. Raisi—will remain in place once the accord is revived.
Chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Abbas Araghchi told state television Sunday that the parties were “closer to an agreement than ever,” but that finalizing a deal wasn’t easy.
Some Western diplomats involved in the talks say the parties could conclude negotiations before Mr. Raisi is sworn into office in early August. That way, Iran’s conservatives can reap the economic and political benefits of sanctions relief while blaming the previous administration for any of the deal’s shortcomings.
The U.S. helped craft the nuclear deal in 2015 along with Iran, the U.K., France, Germany, Russia and China to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. President Donald Trump pulled out of the accord in May 2018, saying it didn’t go far enough to constrain Iran’s nuclear program—some clauses expired after 10 or 15 years—or curb its military activities in the region. He also imposed sanctions on Iran and a host of Iranian leaders, such as Mr. Khamenei and his inner circle that included Mr. Raisi.
In talks to revive the deal, Western officials say Iran continues to make demands that the Biden administration can’t accept. Those include reparations from the U.S. for pulling out of the deal as well as help reviving the kind of international investment and business deals that fell apart or never materialized after the U.S. reimposed sanctions.