Leading Russian agricultural agencies have sharply revised down their forecast for the country’s wheat output in marketing year 2021-22 (July-June), driving up wheat prices and indicating tight global supplies could be in the offing. SovEcon has recently reduced its estimate for the country’s wheat output in marketing year 2021-22 by 5.9 million mt to 76.4 million mt.
The estimate has been scaled down due to lower sowing of winter wheat and anticipated poor yields, the consultancy said.
“Typically, the market underestimates Russia’s winter wheat area. This year is not the case – the winter-kill was above all expectations resulting in an unexpectedly small pre-harvest winter wheat area despite a mild winter,” Andrey Sizov, the head of SovEcon, said in a note.
Hot and dry weather in July was an additional factor behind the reduction in the crop view as it is expected to affect spring wheat yields and some areas of winter wheat, according to the note.
“Winter wheat yields are below expectations in the Centre and the Volga Valley. Outlook for spring wheat yield in the Volga Valley has worsened, especially in the eastern part of the region where moisture reserves were the lowest in a decade,” SovEcon said.
In the week to July 29, another Moscow-based consultancy IKAR also cut its forecast for Russia’s MY2021-22 wheat crop by 3 million mt to 78.5 million mt due to expected low yields in the Central and Volga region.
S&P Global Platts Analytics has maintained its forecast for Russian wheat output in MY2021-22 at 83.8 million mt.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for production of wheat at 80.7 million mt in MY2021-22. In MY2020-21, the country produced 85.9 million mt of wheat, the ministry said.