Greenhouse gas emissions are on a path to increase 16 percent by the end of the decade compared with 2010, setting the world on a dangerous course of continued warming, the United Nations said in a report synthesizing the Nationally Determined Contributions — or commitments — of 192 nations to reduce emissions.
Without more-ambitious pledges, the world is projected to warm 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century compared with the end of the 1800s — far above the Paris climate accord’s goal of limiting warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) compared with preindustrial levels, and, if possible, to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
“The message from this update is loud and clear: Parties must urgently redouble their climate efforts,” said Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.
She said that “overshooting the temperature goals will lead to a destabilized world and endless suffering, especially among those who have contributed the least” to climate change.
A separate report Monday from Canadian Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson and Jochen Flasbarth, his German counterpart, said rich countries would probably meet their goal of providing $100 billion annually to developing nations in 2023 — three years behind schedule.
The pair was tasked by COP26 President Alok Sharma with coming up with a plan to deliver the funds — an issue he has called “totemic.” The failure of rich countries to meet their goal has fueled mistrust among developing nations, which historically have done less to fuel climate change but are disproportionately vulnerable to its consequences.
The issue is poised to be a major sticking point at COP26, where slowing the world’s warming will depend on good faith and collective action. Many developing nations have said their climate pledges are conditional on receiving outside support.
“I’m disappointed, as are developing countries,” Flasbarth told reporters Monday. “But … there is a lot of money already on the table. There is a lot of support and it will increase and it has to increase.”
Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, a Nairobi-based think tank, said the inability of rich countries to keep their promise is “utterly shameful.”
“Poor nations will not be conned,” he said, “and the leaders of the developed world need to pull their finger out and get this money on the table if COP26 is going to be a success.”
Eddy Pérez, international climate diplomacy manager for Climate Action Network Canada, said that while the “level of honesty” from rich countries about missing their collective target is welcome, the gap is “unacceptable.”
The report doesn’t name and shame individual countries, but says that “all developed countries have to step up efforts.” It said one reason developed nations have missed their target is because “private finance mobilization underperformed against expectations.”
Efforts to marshal the funding have been complicated by debates about whether the aid should take the form of loans or grants. Determining how much has been mobilized has been difficult because of a lack of uniformity in how countries account for climate finance.
President Biden announced last month at the U.N. General Assembly that he would work with Congress to double U.S. funding provided each year to help low-income nations combat climate change to $11.4 billion by 2024.