China’s crude imports fell to 39-month low, reflecting stock draws, weak refinery demand and a likely delay in the reporting of discharged cargoes over the National Day holidays. Deliveries to the independents were also poor as their operating environment has become more difficult with more regulatory scrutiny, in line with government efforts to reduce emissions. The low crude import volumes could be short-lived on the back of increased inflows from new refineries, in part for line and tank fill, some inventory build, particularly should oil prices moderate with softer fundamentals and pressure from the independents to use their quotas. We expect 205-207 million mt of crude quotas to be issued in 2022, though there are downside risks to these volumes as Beijing […]