With talks on restoring the 2015 nuclear deal at risk of collapse, the Biden administration faces the prospect of having to rely on two of its biggest international rivals, Russia and China, to end the nuclear standoff with Iran.
Even as U.S. tensions mount with Russia over Ukraine and with China over Taiwan and other issues, Western officials acknowledge that the fastest route to increasing economic and political pressure on Tehran’s new hard-line government runs through Moscow and especially Beijing.
China helped Iran stabilize its economy after the U.S. reimposed sanctions in 2018, pushing it into a severe slump. China has imported up to 700,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day in recent months, according to energy analysis firm Vortexa. China has also used networks designed by Iran to skirt sanctions to carry out other trade, from automotive parts to railway construction.
Weeks after the June election of Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, Russia and China granted Tehran a long-sought diplomatic prize: entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Beijing-led political and economic association that includes India and Central Asian countries.
Talks last week aimed at restoring Iranian and U.S. compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, which suspended most international sanctions in return for strict but temporary nuclear restraints, yielded little progress, with Western allies warning the effort was a step closer to collapse after Tehran barely inched from their stance. Negotiations are expected to resume in Vienna this week.
Since the U.S. quit the deal in 2018, Iran has reversed most of the nuclear limits the pact imposed. With much of Iran’s economy already under U.S. sanctions, significant additional economic pressure from Washington will likely have limited impact, many experts say.
Yet bringing Russia and China on board a concerted new multilateral pressure campaign against Iran will probably be slow and difficult.
“Geopolitical dynamics today may lead China and Russia to stand more firmly with Iran than in the past, especially if they conclude that obstructing U.S. and European aims takes priority over preventing regional conflict or nuclear proliferation,” said Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute, a think tank focused on U.S. policy in the Middle East.
China’s foreign policy under President Xi Jinping has turned far more muscular since the Iran nuclear deal was initially reached.
For Chinese diplomats, dealing with Iran combines an exceptionally complex set of national interests, including energy security, nuclear nonproliferation, Beijing’s relationship with the U.S. and ties with other, competing Persian Gulf powers.
China signed a 25-year security and economic pact with Iran in March but it also has important ties with Iran’s regional foes, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are huge oil suppliers to China. The U.A.E. has become a critical gateway for Chinese exports to the Middle East.
“It’s wishful thinking to expect that the China of 2014 and 2015 is going to return to Vienna,” said Daniel Russel, the State Department’s top diplomat for East Asia affairs during the Obama administration, now at the Asia Society. “I think those days are over.”
Instead of taking a back seat to Russia at the talks, as was often previously the case, China has become more assertive in the Vienna talks, diplomats say. China’s economic ties with Tehran also give it leverage.