The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 on March 3. figure 1 Three scenarios are shown in the chart above for a low oil price scenario, a reference case scenario and a high oil price scenario. The cumulative crude plus condensate (C+C) output for the scenarios from January 2021 to December 2050 is 112 Gb, 140 Gb, and 200 Gb for the low oil price, reference, and high oil price cases respectively. Figure 2 The real Brent oil prices for the AEO 2022 reference case and low and high oil price cases are shown in figure 2 above and the AEO 2021 reference case is included for comparison (little changed from last year). Based on current oil prices the high oil price case might be more reasonable, but oil prices are volatile and the future oil price is not known. Figure 3 The […]