The global population grew by less than 1 per cent a year for the first time since the aftermath of the second world war in 2020 and 2021 with Europe’s total population actually falling during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a UN report.
The populations of 61 countries are forecast to decrease by at least 1 per cent between 2022 and 2050, and the associated low fertility rates will also combine with better healthcare to accelerate the aging of societies.
As the figures were released in the UN’s World Population Prospects report, Antonio Guterres, UN secretary-general, focused on the benefits of healthcare rather than declining fertility and hailed the “advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates”.
However, the rising proportion of older people in many countries is predicted to hit economic growth and public finances and is already posing growing political challenges.
Despite the slowing growth, the global population is still poised this year to reach the milestone of 8bn people, while next year India is projected to surpass China as the most populous country. The world population is expected to peak in the 2080s at 10.4bn and will then begin to fall — the first decline to be forecast in the annual UN report.
Europe’s population shrank by 744,000 in 2020 and by 1.4mn last year — the largest fall of any continent since records began in 1950, reflecting a surge in deaths, a fall in births, and lower net migration linked to the pandemic.
However, the pandemic “is not the main factor”, said John Wilmoth, director of the population division of the UN’s economic and social affairs department. The fertility rate “has been quite low in almost all European countries for many decades and that means there aren’t lots of young people”, he said.
Europe’s population is expected to continue to contract until 2100, with Germany and other countries joining a trend already established in eastern and southern European countries such as Poland and Italy.