The risk of a euro-area recession is growing as the likelihood of natural gas shortages rises and inflation remains at record levels, according to economists polled by Bloomberg. The probability of an economic contraction has increased to 45% from 30% in the previous survey and 20% before Russia invaded Ukraine. Germany, one of the most-vulnerable members of the currency bloc to cutbacks in Russian energy flows, is more likely than not to see economic output shrink. “We assume a recession based on the already implemented oil embargo and the effect of higher input prices on industry,” said Erik-Jan van Harn, a strategist at Rabobank. “The German economy is already slowing down and the […]