European Union leaders are bracing for the shock of Russia turning off the gas taps and Brussels has given member states a 15% voluntary demand reduction target to prepare for such a blow. That should get Europe through next winter, even if Russian gas flows halt entirely and cost the euro-area economy about 0.4% of gross domestic product, according to Bloomberg Economics . If it’s unusually cold and more cuts are needed, that could tip the region into recession and leave 2023 inflation lodged at 5%. Sign up for the New Economy Daily newsletter, follow us @economics and subscribe to our podcast .