China’s very-strict covid policies continue to be a major risk for crude markets. China was almost single-handedly responsible for the commodities pricing super-cycle that occurred between 2000 and 2014. Any major resurgence of covid in China could bring crude prices down significantly. If ever there had been a time when crude oil was going to reach the US$200-plus per barrel (pb) levels posted in clickbait headlines or bank research reports talking their own books then it is now. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, geopolitical risk has not been higher in recent memory, there are swingeing cuts in the ready supply of oil and gas from bans in place or set to come in on Russia for the same reason, and the prospect of compensatory supplies coming from Saudi Arabia or any of its OPEC brethren have been dashed in the realisation finally that endless talk over their abundant spare […]