Ukraine’s farmers will plant up to two-thirds less wheat later this year if the country’s main export route is still blocked, prolonging the global food crisis, its agriculture minister predicted.
Mykola Solskyi said farmers faced a financial crisis if the Russian blockade of the Black Sea was not lifted. Many would lack the cash to pay for seed, fertilizer, herbicide, and fuel for winter wheat and would grow rapeseed instead, which is not used in cereal or bread production but commands a higher price and has a lower yield, meaning there would be less to transport.
Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea has hit Ukraine’s grain exports, pushing up food prices and leaving some poorer countries in the Middle East and Africa struggling to secure wheat. Known as the breadbasket of Europe, Ukraine produced a record 33mn tonnes of cereal last year, and before the invasion had been forecast by the US agriculture department to export 24mn tonnes in 2022, almost the same as the US. It is the world’s fifth largest wheat exporter and accounts for 80 percent of Lebanon’s imports and is a major supplier for countries including Somalia, Syria and Libya.
Solskyi told the Financial Times in an interview that a prolonged blockade would deprive farmers of cash flow and “break the financial cycle” of agriculture in Ukraine, leading to further big declines in exports.
“Farmers will reduce winter sowing, wheat, and barley from 30 to 60 percent,” he said.
Ukraine is in talks with Russia over a deal to resume food exports through the Black Sea. But if Ukraine’s ports remain closed next spring, Solskyi said farmers would “dramatically decrease” the planting of corn and would grow soybeans and sunflowers instead, again because of lower yields and higher prices. Lower output of wheat and corn in 2023 would prolong worldwide grain shortages and push up food prices for longer.