Winter power demand across the EU’s main gas-fired power markets is forecast some 5.3% below the five-year average, analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights shows. November-to-March demand in eight EU member states including Germany, France, Spain and Italy is estimated to average around 216 GW, down 12 GW on the five year average. The European Commission on Sept. 14 proposed a mandatory 5% peakload power demand cut target to reduce gas-for-power demand and peakload power prices. “Proposals to cut peak demand alleviate some of the risk premium embedded in the market, but our forecast remains bearish as we see near-curve risk premiums overdone,” senior power analyst at S&P Global Sabrina Kernbichler said. French spikes “Although our forecast is bearish, price risk is largely to the upside as low nuclear and hydro leaves markets reliant on gas,” Kernbichler said, noting that November looked especially risky, especially for France. French peakload […]