Author: ASPO-USA

When they got you over barrel — what are you gonna do? You pull up, and you pay their latest price … petro, you gotta have it. The turmoil in Iraq pushed up U.S. and world oil prices about 4% this week . The U.S. benchmark crude oil, West Texas Intermediate, closed at $106.91 a barrel, up 38 cents on Friday. Brent, the international benchmark, rose 31 cents to $113.41.The IEA [International Energy Agency] has forecast that Iraq, which has the world’s fifth-largest proven oil reserves, would account for 60% of production growth from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for the rest of this decade. Iraq , now producing about 3.3 million barrels a day, has become OPEC’s second-largest producer , after Saudi Arabia. Even if the fighting stays in Iraq’s north, the IEA sees an […]

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Sixty years ago, a man stood in front of a crowd that had gathered at a small hotel in San Antonio. Minutes before approaching the podium, however, he was quietly ushered off the stage to take an urgent phone call. On the other end of the line was a PR rep for one of the largest oil companies in the world, begging him not to give his speech. Luckily, Dr. Marion King Hubbert wasn’t persuaded. He went on to deliver what was arguably the most important oil prediction since Edwin Drake first drilled a hole into the Pennsylvanian soil in search of salt brine. Essentially, Dr. Hubbert believed there would be a point in time when oil production in the U.S. would peak and begin to decline. Even though his work became the basis for the peak oil theory, far too many people haven’t realized that this isn’t a […]

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US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackouts I hate to say I told you so, but… In 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed. Among my many reports exposing the geological and economic fallacies behind the shale boom narrative are this , this , this and this . Even here on the Guardian, one headline declared the IEA report shows that “ peak oil idea has gone up in flames .” But the IEA’s latest assessment has proved the detractors right all along. The agency’s World Energy Investment Outlook released this week says that US tight […]

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UK officials have claimed Britain needs fracking for industry to ‘prosper’ and ‘the economy to grow’. Increasing data challenges these claims. Photograph: Brennan Linsley/AP I hate to say I told you so, but… In 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed. Among my many reports exposing the geological and economic fallacies behind the shale boom narrative are this , this , this and this . Even here on the Guardian, one headline declared the IEA report shows that " peak oil idea has gone up in flames ." But the IEA’s latest assessment has proved the detractors right all along. […]

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Good news sells, and doesn’t rock any boats, but policy makers and politicians comforted by rosy forecasts are unable to understand the risks and properly prepare the country for long-term energy sustainability…. A more prudent, conservative US oil forecast would look very different. It would consider that, although surprises are always possible, the most productive fossil fuel resources do tend to be discovered first and produced first. It would take note of the fact that production in fracked wells declines extremely quickly, requiring an accelerating drilling treadmill to maintain—let alone grow—production, with associated collateral environmental impacts. It would assume that most tight oil plays producible at current oil prices have already been discovered and put into production, and that major new resources—if they exist—are unlikely to be forthcoming unless there is a significant rise in oil prices. In short, the forecast would be based on actual data from existing […]

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Commodities / Crude Oil When In Doubt, Worry About Oil One of the starkest oil worry pot pourri presentations – ruthlessly mingling fact, fiction and fantasy (but pretending its all fact) – can be had here http://energypolicy.columbia.edu… Steve Kopits is the Managing Director of a known and still-in-business oil and energy forecasting firm, Douglas-Westwood. Both Kopits and D-W would appear to be (still) employable, but for how much longer we can only guess. The Kopits presentation is showcased by the Dublin sustainable economy and development firm FEASTA, with an even more ghastly presentation by David Knight called ‘Peak Oil and Climate Change – Two Sides of the Same Coin?’ FEASTA says that, as it perceives things,  Global Warming and Peak Oil are the two largest threats to the planet, human life and civilization. To be sure this inevitably includes oil prices. Where is any so-called “peak oil induced” takeoff […]

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On World Environmental Day, United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon underscored that sustainable energy is the golden thread that links poverty eradication, equitable economic growth and a healthy environment. Speaking today (5 June)at the first annual Sustainable Energy for All forum, Ban pointed out three goals for 2030: “universal access to modern energy services. Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. Twice as much renewable energy in the global energy mix. Our efforts so far show that these objectives are realistic. Our focus now must be to achieve them.” He said this can bring us closer to our goals of universal energy and a life of dignity and opportunity for all. Ban said “along with its campaign on energy and women’s and children’s health, the Decade can bring us closer to our goals of universal energy and a life of dignity and opportunity for all. Modern energy […]

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The oil industry used to be a no-brainer investment. There seemed to be an infinite supply of oil, and with more and more people owning cars, demand — and thus oil prices — were rocketing. This meant that oil companies would be booming. But has anyone asked the question: what happens when the oil runs out? Oil companies such as BP (LSE: BP.L – news ) (LSE: BP) (NYSE: BP) and Shell (LSE: RDSB.L – news ) (LSE: RDSB) (NYSE: RDS-B.US) are already finding that their production is falling. They are now scouring the furthest reaches of the planet for oil, from the Artic to the Gulf of Mexico and the South Atlantic. Oil is increasingly difficult to extract But any oil they do come across is increasingly difficult, and expensive, to extract. And the Macondo tragedy shows what can happen when the oil industry tries perhaps a little too […]

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Canadian oil and gas companies will be competing head to head with lower-cost energy producers in the near future, and the country needs a better strategy to remain competitive in a post peak-oil world. According to a PwC report released May 30, Canada has four options when it comes to the future of oil and gas: continue relying on exports to the United States ; focus on building pipelines to either the west or east coasts to get oil and gas to offshore markets; or look to develop “unconventional resources” in Canada’s north. “As Canada moves from a focus on the US market toward exporting our oil production to world markets, it will fight for market share with nations that have strategic interests and the regulatory will to capture demand, particularly in the high-growth Asian market,” says the report. While Canada still has some of the largest oil reserves […]

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“First is conservation. That’s the missing piece in most proposals for dealing with peak oil. The chasm into which so many well-intentioned projects have tumbled over the last decade is that nothing available to us can support the raw extravagance of energy and resource consumption we’re used to, once cheap abundant fossil fuels aren’t there any more, so—ahem—we have to use less. Too much talk about using less in recent years, though, has been limited to urging energy and resource abstinence as a badge of moral purity, and—well, let’s just say that abstinence education did about as much good there as it does in any other context. The things that played the largest role in hammering down US energy consumption in the 1970s energy crisis were unromantic but effective techniques such as insulation, weatherstripping, and the like, all of which allow a smaller amount of energy to do the […]

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