Author: ASPO-USA

Second Conference on Economic Degrowth for Ecological Sustainability and Social Equity March 26-29th 2010, Barcelona Peak oil is not some fuzzy academic concern but a reality: for the US in 1970, for some 60 of 80 oil-producing countries and, at least for the moment, for the world since about 2005. In addition the net energy delivered to society (as opposed to the total) is declining in recent decades from 30 or more to one to ten or less to one as we have exhausted our largest, shallowest, closest to shore and highest quality oil and gas fields. While technological improvements have slowed the effects of depletion the net effects are that there is a declining EROI (Energy Return on Energy [and money] Invested). Most alternatives to oil and gas except hydroelectric or coal have a small or very small EROI, and even for these the highest EROI sites in […]

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If oil is “just another commodity,” then there shouldn’t be any connection between oil prices, debt levels, interest rates, and total rates of return. But there clearly is a connection. On one hand, spikes in oil prices are connected with recessions . According to economist James Hamilton, ten out of eleven post-World War II recessions have been associated with spikes in oil prices . There also is a logical reason for oil prices spikes to be associated with recession: oil is used in making and transporting food, and in commuting to work. These are necessities for most people. If these costs rise, there is a need to cut back on non-essential goods, leading to layoffs in discretionary sectors, and thus recession. On the other hand, the manipulation of interest rates and the addition of governmental debt (by spending more than is collected in tax dollars) are the primary ways […]

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Generals and others have talked about the dangers of conflicts and/or wars being generated as resources are depleted ( Natural Resource Depletion and the Changing Geopolitical Landscape ). A conflict between Vietnam and China is an example of the tensions that can arise – in this case oil is the resource ( China Blames Vietnam ). But as the TIME cover shows, using the oil resources is just as dangerous, or more so, than running out of oil is –in other words it is a catch-22, a conundrum, or a no-win situation any way we choose to look at this situation that is only getting worse. Britain and France over in Europe are facing the problem of depletion: In just over five years Britain will have run out of oil, coal and gas, researchers have warned . A report by the Global Sustainability Institute said shortages would increase dependency […]

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Time for another roundup of some of the better peak oil stories from the last few months: Former BP geologist: Peak oil is here and it will ‘break economies’ (Raw Story) US Army colonel: world is sleepwalking to a global energy crisis (The Guardian) Peak oil theory, as originally conceived by Hubbert and his followers, was largely governed by natural forces.  As we have seen, however, these can be overpowered by the application of increasingly sophisticated technology.  Reservoirs of energy once considered inaccessible can be brought into production, and others once deemed exhausted can be returned to production; rather than being finite, the world’s petroleum base now appears virtually inexhaustible. Does this mean that global oil output will continue rising, year after year, without ever reaching a peak?  That appears unlikely.  What seems far more probable is that we will see a slow tapering of output over the next […]

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The modern world is totally dependent on a continuing supply of energy from oil and other fossil fuels. However, recent natural disasters, global political upheavals, price hikes in the cost of gas, heating oil and electricity, and the eye-watering cost of filling up a car are signposts toward an unexpected, different, energy-constrained future. The central theme of this book is this: as traditional energy sources and in particular oil start to run short, we are sleepwalking into an energy crisis which will have farreaching effects on every part of the modern world. Christians and the church will have to grapple with these issues if we want to understand the context in which we will live, worship, minister and witness in the years ahead. In this book we aim to raise awareness of ‘peak oil’ and its consequences amongst Christians, and to prepare the church in practical ways for the […]

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Diving Into Stories of Energy Transition with Chris Nelder Part Two of Four.  Link to Part 1 . A transcript of our interview on Extraenvironmentalist #76  by Scott Bohachyk Editor’s note:  Last time we discussed nuclear power and the potential role it may have in the 21st century energy transition. This time we are discussing the story of peak oil and whether it has any validity. Justin: A core part of the story we were just talking about, in the audio we were playing from the film Pandora’s Promise film is the idea that we’re going to hit 9 or 10 billion people and consume two, three, four times as much energy as we do now, but one story that really counters that is the idea of geology limiting oil output and the peak oil story. Now that we can reflect back on a few years of recession, and […]

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Only weeks after the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott introduced “Team Australia to help China build the Asian Century” to the Boao Forum on the island of Hainan in the South China Sea we get a foretaste how this much hyped Asian Century will look like: many fights over oil and gas. In a well prepared action China moved a 30,000 ton, 1$ billion semi-submersible drilling rig (HD 981) into position in contested waters 220 kms off the Vietnamese coast near the Paracel islands, and just 330 km South East of Hainan where Abbott spoke. Vietnamese coast guard boats tried to interrupt the positioning of the rig but were attacked by water cannons and rammed by Chinese boats. For Vietnam control over offshore oil and gas is absolutely vital because oil production has peaked 10 years ago and gas is expected to peak by 2018. Abbott would neither know […]

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  1.  Oil and the Global Economy Last week’s trading left futures prices little changed. New York oil closed Friday at $99.99 a barrel and London closed at $107.89. As has been the case for several weeks, the US crude inventory, weak demand, and the Ukrainian and Libyan situations were the main drivers of the oil markets. US crude imports were down markedly the week before last leading to a drop in inventories along the Gulf coast and even total US crude inventories for the first time in many weeks. Some analysts are wondering if Gulf Coast storage facilities can absorb much more oil. Natural gas futures dropped sharply on Thursday after the inventory report showed that the warmer weather has led to natural gas being injected into storage caverns at close to the normal pace. Futures prices are down about 30 cents per million from the $4.85 level […]

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[The] increased oil expenditure is drawing money away from the rest of the economy. Overall, were it not for the price increase [from the historical average of $25.00 per barrel], the US would have an extra $1.5 billion per day to spend in the broader economy, or $543 billion per year. Instead, all that money is being spent on expensive oil, which is distorting the economy. Is it any wonder oil-dependent economies are struggling to grow their economies? Could it be that expensive oil signifies the twilight of industrial growth, as we have known it…? At the current price of $105 …, the world spends $9.45 billion per day on oil, or $3.5 trillion per year. This is a difference of $7.2 billion every day, an extra cost to the global economy which is largely a result of crude oil having peaked. It lacks credibility to pronounce the death […]

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Our lead story: This week Stanford said that it would divest all of its investments in coal mining companies, becoming the wealthiest US university to pledge divestment from sectors of the fossil fuel industry. Erin gives you her take on the situation. For our interviews today, we look at peak oil theory with Richard Heinberg and James Hamilton. Heinberg argues that we have reached peak oil supply and that will have major economic consequences for our future prospects of economic growth. Hamilton on the other hand sees this as more of a demand issue. Take a look. Finally in today’s Big Deal, Edward Harrison and Erin take a look at the return of the subprime auto loan market. Is this another example of perverse incentives in the search for yield? Edward gives you his take.

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