Author: ASPO-USA

For years, meaning until the arrival of U.S. shale production, much ink was spilled on the concept of “peak oil” — the argument that the world was fast approaching an absolute maximum of crude oil that can be produced on a  daily basis. Shale production has put the kabosh on that for the time being, but there’s another “peak” to argue about, and it’s peak demand. Oil consumption in Western Europe, Japan and the United States has  been declining since about 2005. Have we hit “peak demand?” Not hardly, at least not worldwide, agreed three panelists at the ongoing IHS/CERAWeek energy conference in Houston. Demand from Asia and the developing world will more than offset declines in OECD nations, said the panelists, all refiners. Bill Klesse, CEO of San Antonio-based Valero Energy, said world crude oil demand can be expected to grow about 1 million barrels per year through 2025. […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com

An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Mark Lewis (links in original): Oil market commentators increasingly dismiss the very idea of supply-side constraints on the oil market, pointing to the recent surge in light-tight oil production from US shale deposits and the existence of vast shale formations elsewhere in the world…. But does this peak demand theory bear scrutiny? [F]rom data for 2013 released by the EIA recently, it is now clear that US demand not only increased last year, but accelerated rapidly over the course of the year. All of [the data reported by the author] implies that the reduction in US oil demand over 2008-12 was not so much structural as due mainly to the weakness of the US economy following the global financial crisis, and the tightness of the local oil market until recently. As the economy has started […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com

For years, meaning until the arrival of U.S. shale production, much ink was spilled on the concept of "peak oil" — the argument that the world was fast approaching an absolute maximum of crude oil that can be produced on a  daily basis. Shale production has put the kabosh on that for the time being, but there’s another "peak" to argue about, and it’s peak demand. Oil consumption in Western Europe, Japan and the United States has  been declining since about 2005. Have we hit "peak demand?" Not hardly, at least not worldwide, agreed three panelists at the ongoing IHS/CERAWeek energy conference in Houston. Demand from Asia and the developing world will more than offset declines in OECD nations, said the panelists, all refiners. Bill Klesse, CEO of San Antonio-based Valero Energy, said world crude oil demand can be expected to grow about 1 million barrels per year through 2025. […]

Click here to view full article at blogs.star-telegram.com

Page added on March 3, 2014 Last week, I mused on the death of cars and big-picture factors working against the auto industry, including urbanization and declining driving rates in younger Americans. Now, I’ll trot out my crystal ball again and offer you another prediction: This is the beginning of the end for Big Oil, too. Now before you jump down my throat for trolling you again with hyperbole, I will state up front that I don’t expect Exxon Mobil XOM -1.01%  , BP BP -2.13%  and Chevron CVX -0.69%   to disappear tomorrow any more than I expect I-95 to start sprouting daisies. But as with the decline of automobile ownership — and in part because of it — we may also be witnessing a protracted decline in major energy stocks and fossil fuel demand. That’s bad for big oil, and bad for investors in these stocks. Efficiency […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com

Page added on March 3, 2014 The economic foundations supporting fossil fuels investments are collapsing quickly, as the business case for renewables such as solar and wind finds a new center of balance. I have waited a long time—decades, really—for a tipping point in the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables beyond which there can be no turning back. Fresh evidence pertaining to many themes I have explored in this column over the past three years suggests that tipping point is finally here. Oil and gas Underlying the abundance hype over tight oil, tar sands and other “unconventional” sources of liquid fuel has been a dirty little secret: They’re expensive. The soaring cost of producing oil has far outpaced the rise in oil prices as the world has relied on these marginal sources to keep production growing since conventional oil production peaked in 2005. Those who ignored the […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com

Earth insight badge A pro-European protester swings a metal chain during riots in Kiev A protester in Ukraine swings a metal chain during clashes – a taste of things to come? Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters If anyone had hoped that the Arab Spring and Occupy protests a few years back were one-off episodes that would soon give way to more stability, they have another thing coming. The hope was that ongoing economic recovery would return to pre-crash levels of growth, alleviating the grievances fueling the fires of civil unrest, stoked by years of recession. But this hasn’t happened. And it won’t . Instead the post-2008 crash era, including 2013 and early 2014, has seen a persistence and proliferation of civil unrest on a scale that has never been seen before in human history. This month alone has seen riots kick-off in Venezuela , Bosnia , Ukraine , Iceland , and […]

Click here to view full article at www.theguardian.com

We’ve all heard a lot about Peak Oil, the point at which global oil production begins to decline because the accessible supply is simply not as big as it was the year before. Whether it has been passed or is looming in the near future, is still being debated, especially in the light of the recent boom in U.S. production. But it is highly likely that it is imminent, which is really a good thing, given the carbon emissions entailed, which has not been reason enough for many people, institutions and governments to press for alternatives. But what about all of those cars and trucks that most of that oil goes into? There are a number of analysts who think that, despite the optimistic sales projections of automakers, we may be approaching the point of peak cars. Given the fact that more and […]

Click here to view full article at 3blmedia.com

We’ve all heard a lot about Peak Oil, the point at which global oil production begins to decline because the accessible supply is simply not as big as it was the year before. Whether it has been passed or is looming in the near future, is still being debated, especially in the light of the recent boom in U.S. production. But it is highly likely that it is imminent, which is really a good thing, given the carbon emissions entailed, which has not been reason enough for many people, institutions and governments to press for alternatives. But what about all of those cars and trucks that most of that oil goes into? There are a number of analysts who think that, despite the optimistic sales projections of automakers, we may be approaching the point of peak cars. Given the fact that more and […]

Click here to view full article at 3blmedia.com

As our civilization proceeds down the slope of the post-peak-oil curve, global trade will become more and more expensive, so our economies will naturally localize. The energy-efficiency benefits of localized economies are obvious to us, but there are also social and even psycho-social benefits that aren’t often contemplated. I had the good fortune to work with respected crowd-behavior expert Alan Berkowitz several years ago on a film project about “bystander behavior.” Berkowitz is a psychologist and sociologist who advises, writes, and speaks on bystander behavior, as well as a number of other health and social justice subjects. He founded and edited the Report on Social Norms . I later interviewed him for my documentary, GrowthBusters: Hooked on Growth . I was curious about why human beings react so irrationally to evidence we are harming our planet and the life support systems on which […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com

Pulitzer prize-winning author and energy analyst Daniel Yergin kicked off the 2014 MIT Energy Conference Friday by looking back at big changes in the energy landscape since the conference launched in 2006—and ahead at three visions for the future of energy. Dr. Yergin, Vice President of IHS and author of two bestselling books on the history of energy, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power and The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World, said much has changed over the last decade in the energy world. From “Peak Oil” to Energy Abundance? “It was the year of Peak Oil,” Yergin said, looking back at 2005, when the MIT Energy Initiative was launched and the first MIT Energy Conference conceived. America and the world were concerned about rising global oil demand […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com