Author: ASPO-USA

Despite the arguments that once raged and the considerable volumes written to advocate certain viewpoints and disparage others, interest in peak oil is at an all time low. Indeed some commentators have confidently declared that peak oil is dead and that the theory has turned out to be nonsense . But this attitude stems largely from the explosion of tight or shale oil production in the US. This oil, trapped in shale rock formations in the same way as shale gas, and similarly extracted by fracking, was almost unheard of just over five years ago. Yet recent projections suggest production of it could exceed 7m barrels per day by 2035 . Despite this, some analysts maintain that tight oil has no bearing on peak oil, and others claim that it is a point we have already passed . So we are in the strange position where both sides of […]

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My anomalous position as a writer and speaker on the future of industrial society who holds down a day job as an archdruid has its share of drawbacks, no question, but it also has significant advantages.  One of the most important of those is that I don’t have to worry about maintaining a reputation as a serious public figure. That may not sound like an advantage, but believe me, it is one. Most of the other leading figures in the peak oil scene have at least some claim to respectability, and that pins them down in subtle and no-so-subtle ways. Like it or not, they have to know that being right about peak oil means that they might just pick up the phone one of these days and field an invitation to testify before a Senate subcommittee or a worried panel of long-range […]

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Citizens of the U.S. and world are heading into a future that few have prepared.  It will also turn out to be much worse than most realize as it will be unlike anything we have witnessed in the past. Part of the reason we are in such a bad fix has to do with the compartmentalization and specialization of our modern educational and economic system.  There are many intelligent people in the market doing smart things, however they have no clue on what the hell is going on in other industries or professions. For example, there are many precious metal analysts that I have much respect for, but who fail to understand the energy industry.  Now, I would imagine there are a few analysts in the precious metal Biz that do understand the ramifications of Peak Oil, but it’s more rewarding for them […]

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Something has bothered me of late: why is the price of crude oil still elevated? Other commodities have taken a battering since 2011. Gold, copper and iron ore – all are way down off their peaks. But oil has seemingly defied gravity. And that’s despite increased supply from shale oil in the U.S., still soft demand particularly in the developed world and declining rates of inflation growth across the globe. What gives? Well, shale oil proponents will say falling oil prices are just a matter of time. And that the boom in shale oil will reduce U.S. reliance on foreign oil, leading to cheaper local oil, which will free up household budgets and spur consumption as well as the broader economy. Perhaps … though I’d have thought all of that would already be reflected in prices. On the other side, you have "peak oil" supporters who suggest high oil […]

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Image via The Prime Minster’s Office/flickr. Creative Commons 2.0 license.   Three things you shouldn’t miss this week Commentary: America’s Feel-Good Oil Bonanza -What the EIA says matters—regardless of its veracity or substantiation. In this light, let’s take a look at what the EIA is now saying in AEO 2014. Commentary: 6 reasons why there’s no community in fracking – Fracking is too capital intensive to allow communities to set up and run their own wells, even if they wanted to…Income such as is being proposed is only one small part of the bigger picture of thinking about what a resilient community needs. Commentary : In brief: The EU’s new 2030 climate and energy package – The European Commission today announced new energy and climate targets for the EU. The UK is to go all out for shale gas and David Cameron is asking British people to get on […]

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Several months ago, I discussed the issue of “Capex compression.” When decreasing oil industry revenues cannot keep up with the increasing exploration and production costs of unconventional resources such as deep-water and shale fields, investments decline. Not exactly rocket science….   GETTING LESS = HAVING LESS   As I noted in that post, and as common sense suggests, when they invest less, we wind up with less. We now live in a world where demand is forecasted to increase [see this ] and conventional crude oil  production continues to decline by 3-4 million barrels per day—depending on which source is referenced. Lower investments and thus lower supply from resources harder to find, extract, and produce to begin with, means that we’re confronted with some legitimate supply and demand issues most fifth-graders would understand: Less supply and higher demand = a problem. Of course, prices at the pump could increase […]

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The supermajor sees energy landscape shifting as demand growth slows and new fuels emerge to challenge oil’s supremacy. Helen Robertson reports   Click here to view charts  UK SUPERMAJOR BP has claimed the concept of global energy supply peaking amid rapidly rising consumption is no longer valid as new fuels emerge and energy demand growth slows.   "The theory of peak oil has peaked," BP chief executive Bob Dudley said as he unveiled the company’s new energy outlook to 2035 . The outlook, which forecasts global energy supply and demand trends between 2012 and 2035, estimates total global energy consumption will rise by 41% between 2012 to 2035. This is compared to a rise of 55% over the last 23 years and 30% over the past decade.  Global energy demand will grow at around 2% per year between now and 2020 then falling to a rate of 1.2% per […]

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All signs of desperation, Albert. The party’s about to end and the most greedy people are getting as bladdered as they can, and stashing away their own private supplies before the booze runs out. Sad, and also childish. 2014 – This documentary and the other documentaries on this channel are very informative, interesting, and even fun. You will see documentaries on important times and figures in history, science, technology, nature, archaeology, and education, as well as some more fringe topics like conspiracy theories and government corruption. The topics of these video documentaries vary greatly and cover ancient history and civilizations like Rome, Greece, Egypt, science, technology, nature, planet earth and other planets, the solar system, the universe, World wars, battles, military and combat technology, current events, teaching and education, biographies, television, movies and cinema, the arts, popular music worldwide, archaeology, the Illuminati, Area 51, serial killers, paranormal and supernatural […]

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Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said he viewed the increase in U.S. oil production as a new source of supply that will help stabilize oil markets. Oil from shale is providing a buffer against an unsteady Middle East market, but it’s not too early to consider what happens to markets after the revolution. Skip to next paragraph Recent posts Naimi said during a meeting in Riyadh with U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz the increase in U.S. oil production was adding a level of stability to an international oil market unsettled by problems in the Middle East and North Africa. "It is necessary to continue consultations between our two countries to expand the horizons of cooperation, including joint investments, and working with oil producing and consuming countries for the stability of […]

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