Author: ASPO-USA

Peak oil has been predicted since the 1950s to occur by various near-future dates, originally as early as 1965. The prediction that US oil production would peak in the 1970s was, in fact, accurate, but new discoveries – including North American sources involving fracking and tar sands – keep pushing the timeline outward. Some say we will always find new oil sources, though economic theory states they will also get inexorably more expensive. Recent discussions have revived the peak oil debate. A Business Insider articl e last spring claimed “it is probably safe to say we have slayed "peak oil" once and for all, thanks to the combination new shale oil and gas production techniques and declining fuel use.” It was counterpointed here . But I basically don’t care. All the talk of peak oil, that we are running out of fossil fuels and therefore need […]

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Page added on January 15, 2014 We have all heard of peak oil, but peak grains? A study released by the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln suggests we may be heading in that direction — if we’re not already there. The UNL study indicates that about 30% of major global cereal crops — including rice, wheat and corn — may have already reached their maximum yields. In fact, yields of these crops seem to have already hit a plateau and some are already decreasing, especially in eastern Asia, Europe and the United States. “We found widespread deceleration in the relative rate of increase of average yields of the major cereal crops during the 1990-2010 period in countries with greatest production of these crops,” says an article based on the study in Nature Communications . The article notes that there was a noticeable plateau […]

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Page added on January 16, 2014 OPEC spare capacity set to reach levels last seen in the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, analysts say One piece of the jigsaw puzzle is missing to complete the deflation landscape across the West: a slide in oil prices. This is becoming more likely each month. Turmoil across the Middle East and parts of Africa has choked supply over the past two years, keeping Brent crude near $110 a barrel despite a broader commodity slump. Cotton and corn prices have halved, as has the UBS (Xetra: UB0BL6 – news ) index of industrial metals. Such anomalies rarely last. “We estimate that crude oil is now the mostly richly priced commodity in the world,” says Deutsche Bank (Xetra: DBK.DE – news ) in a fresh report. Michael Lewis, the bank’s commodity strategist, said markets face an “new oil supply glut” as three […]

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Why EIA, IEA, and Randers’ 2052 Energy Forecasts are Wrong Page added on January 14, 2014 What is correct way to model the future course of energy and the economy? There are clearly huge amounts of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground.  With different approaches, researchers can obtain vastly different indications. I will show that the real issue is most researchers are modeling the wrong limit . Most researchers assume that the limit that they should be concerned with is the amount of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground. This is the wrong limit . While in theory we will eventually hit this limit, because of the way fossil fuels are integrated into the rest of the economy, we hit financial limits much earlier . These financial limits include lack of investment capital, inability of governments to collect enough taxes to fund their programs, and […]

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The fear that we have reached peak oil seems to have abated in recent years as the US and other countries began extraction of shale oil. But that doesn’t mean we should think that this problem has gone away. According to UPI.com , new research published by the Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions A suggests that the shale gas reserves are just a false dawn and that oil production has reached a terminal tailspin, as supply increasingly struggles to keep up with demand. Oil rig with gas flare: we’ve already passed peak oil according to new research The impact of this will be felt by economies all around the world, resulting to exploiting ever-more difficult to extract oil supplies in an attempt to prop up supply. Former BP Geologist and co-author of the new research paper, Dr Richard G Miller told students at the University College London that data from […]

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The Romans named the first month of the year after the double-headed god Janus, the symbol of thresholds and transitions. He reminds us how life often involves choices between opposites. Janus stands at January’s doorway looking at both 2013 and the New Year. One Janus-like debate in the energy sector revolves around the world’s oil and gas supply. Views are always vacillating between “there’s not enough” and “there’s more than enough”. This point would be trivial were it not for a recent dramatic shift towards the first view. Until the middle of the last decade, the popular view was that production of “non-renewable” energy resources was peaking. In a sense, […]

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The following interview with Richard Heinberg was originally published in Flemish at the Belgian website De Wereld Morgen . The interview was given in conjunction with the release of the Dutch translation of Richard’s Book Snake Oil: How Fracking’s False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future . The Dutch title is Schaliegas, piekolie & onze toekomst . Selma Franssen: Considering the shale gas and oil reserves in Europe, is there any sense in fracking here, all other objections aside? Richard Heinberg: Until test wells are drilled, it’s very difficult to know what the actual shale gas and oil production potential is for Europe. All sorts of numbers have been cited, but they are simply guesses. Back in 2011, the US Energy Information Administration estimated that Poland’s shale gas reserves were 187 trillion cubic feet, but a little on-the-ground exploration led the Polish Geological Institute to downgrade that figure to […]

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Page added on January 9, 2014 Selma Franssen: Considering the shale gas and oil reserves in Europe, is there any sense in fracking here, all other objections aside? Richard Heinberg: Until test wells are drilled, it’s very difficult to know what the actual shale gas and oil production potential is for Europe. All sorts of numbers have been cited, but they are simply guesses. Back in 2011, the US Energy Information Administration estimated that Poland’s shale gas reserves were 187 trillion cubic feet, but a little on-the-ground exploration led the Polish Geological Institute to downgrade that figure to a mere 27 TCF—a number that may still be overly optimistic. My institute’s research suggests that US future production of shale oil and gas has been wildly over-estimated too. So, without attempting to put a specific number to it, I think it would be wise to assume that Europe’s actual reserves […]

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For many years, the most compelling issue driving sustainability efforts among businesses, consumers, governments and activists has been climate change. We are all becoming increasingly concerned with the impacts of rising temperatures and extreme weather events on our supply chains, cities, transportation networks, agricultural industries, and lives. We have become increasingly alarmed about the results of burning too much coal, oil and gas; the consequences of excessive emissions resulting from some of the most useful substances humanity has ever harnessed. We have identified our most important struggle – to maintain economic growth while reducing carbon emissions. Because our concern has been first and foremost the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, we have designed and sporadically implemented economic incentives to reduce carbon emissions. We issue carbon credits to companies that emit less carbon. We offer cash to countries who don’t cut down […]

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Shocking Prediction: Part II – The ‘Second Phase’ Of The Oil Boom Could Eclipse The First Last week, I told you about how the "second phase" of the oil boom could make the first phase look like small potatoes (you can read the article here ). At the end of my article, I mentioned that if the price of oil drops below $70 per barrel, horizontal drilling plays could see their margins shrink considerably, along with investment returns. I know a lot of oil investors are worried about that potential outcome, so I wanted to write this follow-up to show you why I think high oil prices are here to stay, and why over time they’re likely to go higher. If you think we’ve escaped "peak oil" and oil prices are destined to fall… think again. Back in 2008, before the financial crisis […]

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