Author: ASPO-USA

The idea that we’re running out of oil may have faded slightly from the list of concerns, but that’s just one of any number of precious natural resources we’re using up far too quickly. Peak oil is the concept that new discoveries of commercially exploitable oil resources do not keep pace with growing demand. By extrapolating the data, you can estimate when we will run out of it for all practical purposes. There are a lot of disagreements about whether we have reached peak oil or when the downhill slope will hit a point that brings a significant percentage of our vehicles to a grinding halt, but the concept has made scientists and policy makers ask the question: What other critical resources may be peaking? Asia Pulp & Paper Company, one of the world’s largest, announced last month that it will no longer use wood from natural forests for […]

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President Richard Nixon of the United States of America is probably the most infamous of all the American presidents to ever hold office. His involvement in the Watergate scandal and the Vietnam War are all that’s left of him in the memory of most Americans today. However in 1973, at the peak of the oil crisis, when national oil reserves were depleting and oil prices per barrel had increased by more than 300%, he made his famous address to the people in November, where he said “ Restating our overall objective. It can be summed up in one word that best characterizes this nation and its essential nature. That word is ‘ independence ’.” Today, nearly 40 years after the oil crisis crippled America, they are one step closer to Nixon’s ambitious plan of full energy independence. On July 31st, 2014; an oil tanker, the BW Zambesi , set […]

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The debate over whether we are running out of oil sometimes resembles the medieval controversy over how many angels could dance on the head of a pin. By redefining the size of the pin and the agility of the angels, today’s “peak oil” proponents have managed to continue the argument. The characters have changed though. Matthew Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert, casting doubt on Saudi oil production, died in August 2010, and the Oil Drum website closed down last September. New disputants, including economist James Hamilton from the University of California, and Stephen Kopits, the managing director of the consultancy Douglas-Westwood, argue that oil production is limited by geology and is a severe drag on economic growth. These factors will ultimately drive up the oil price if they are right. On the other side of the argument, voices such as the Reuters columnist John Kemp, who states […]

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There are enough articles on the “myth of peak oil” floating around the Internet to fill a book; and there are enough books on the subject to fill a small library.  One of the common threads throughout these publications is their lack of credible sources, because not only is peak oil real, but we’re rapidly approaching that threshold.  An example that is smacking the United States and the oil industry in the face right now is floating in the Gulf of Mexico.  According to a new government report , oil and natural gas production in the Gulf has been steadily declining for the last decade. The report looked at oil production in the Gulf of Mexico on federal lands only, not any privately-held lands where production is taking place. Since 2010, according to the report , the annual yield of oil from the Gulf has fallen by almost 140 million barrels.  […]

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Solar and renewables are being touted as the energy sources of the future, but will they provide enough power relative to the energy that must be invested in them? Engineer Graham Palmer argues there’s no easy solution to the fact that we’re running out of fossil fuels. Canadian philosopher Marshall McLuhan once quipped that the last thing a fish would notice is the water. You could almost draw a parallel to the essential role energy plays in modern society—cheap accessible energy is now so ubiquitous that we barely notice the importance of it to modern living, nor the astonishing wealth it has brought. Just one litre of petrol provides the equivalent of a week or more of pre-industrial human labour. Having achieved this miraculous transformation, it is not likely that societies will voluntarily turn back. According to Joseph Tainter’s thesis, societies grow more complex in order to solve new […]

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IEA Oil Market Forecast: Optimistic Assumptions And An Economy Unable To Grow Out Of Its Problems The International Energy Authority (IEA) forecasts a yearly increase of 1.3% in global oil demand during the period 2013-2019. This contrasts with the assumption of global economic growth rising from 3.6% in 2014 to around 4% thereafter [1] . How does a 1.3% increase in oil usage support economic growth of about three times that amount? The oil intensity of growth has been decreasing over time, with global oil intensity falling from  1:1 (a 1% increase in global oil consumption required for each 1% of global economic growth) to a ratio of 0.75:1, between 1995 and 2009 [2] . An extrapolation of that trend would result in an average oil intensity of about 0.65:1 during the 2013-2019 time period, with 1.3% growth in oil demand driving about 2% global economic growth. The IEA […]

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Electric Currents I came across this OpEd this morning by , a former financial advisory and retired attorney, now turned author. Besides turning his ‘pen’ to fiction, he also blogs on energy issues, Peak Oil, in particular, so critics will likely call him, and me, ‘true believers.’ But our particular tribe trusts facts and verifiable numbers, not loose estimations and overly-rosy forecasts, like predicting Americas’ energy independence based on fracking and tar sands. Richard has analyzed the arguments aimed at debunking ‘Peak Oil’ and found that very little substantive data is used. Instead critics turn to the same tactics used by tobacco companies and global warming deniers. I thought his comments and observations worth sharing with EV World readers. Bill Moore Denial Tricks of the Trade On an issue fraught with the potential for so much societal disruption as peak oil presents (like its kin, climate change), and the […]

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It’s certainly understandable and indeed common practice in probably every sales conversation in every profession known to man that putting the best spin on the story told is a given. Most buyers/consumers would be surprised at the very least if a presenter offered up her or his best but then immediately discounted that version with other information contradicting it all and discouraging the consumers from even considering what’s being offered. We all understand there’s a game to be played. While that may be standard practice and simply part of the bargain to eventually be struck in the great majority of consumer transactions where the parties tend to be on equal footing, energy supply conversations don’t fall into that category when the discussion is between everyday consumers and industry officials or their representatives. Matters of such scope tend to be outside the range of interest for all but a few, […]

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Graham Palmer, an industrial engineer from Melbourne, discusses energy use and needs. He predicts that the declining energy surplus of fossil fuels will be one of the defining features of energy systems in the twenty first century. ABC Name (required) Email Address (required) Website

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As U.S. and EU policymakers have imposed targeted sanctions on Russian individuals and firms in response to the crisis in Ukraine, Western companies have sought to insulate their own projects from the political imbroglio and continue developing the country’s vast oil and gas resources. Exxon Mobil and Shell have joint ventures with Rosneft and Gazprom respectively to explore and produce shale oil and gas from beneath the swampy plains of Western Siberia and both want to be allowed to continue operating there. It’s easy to see why. The West Siberian basin is the largest petroleum basin in the world, covering 2.2 million square kilometres between the Ural Mountains and Yenisei River, extending from Kazakhstan in the south to under parts of the Kara Sea in the north. The region contains dozens of super-giant and giant oilfields, including Samotlor with 28 billion barrels of oil originally in place, and Urengoy […]

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Love it or hate it, British multinational oil and gas company BP ( NYSE:BP ) is one the world’s top institutional experts on energy. Besides being a business leader in its industry — the sixth largest integrated oil company (IOC) by market cap in 2013 — the supermajor is at the forefront of the semi-commercial, semi-academic conversation about the future of energy use at large. Since 1952, BP has offered a share of its two cents in the form of an annual statistical review , the aim of which is to share data and insight about current energy markets and where the world could be heading. The report proper is somewhat dense and is generally only partially digested, if at all, by the media, but the 2013 review contained a few salient points that were thrust into the spotlight. First, and most broadly, was this insight: Demand growth for […]

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They should be magicians. Successful magic depends on the artist being able to distract the viewers from the sleight-of-hand performed. Keep them preoccupied with one topic or one item and it’s then much simpler to create the illusion of magic. Peak oil deniers are a lot like that. Toss out some carefully massaged facts bearing the imprint of near-truths but without context (just to be safe), engage in a pattern of irrelevancies to help muddy the waters, toss in some meaningless numbers while carefully shielding the important ones from the discussion, and presto! No more peak oil theories. But as with magic, the show must end. We walk back out into the light and back into reality, where some of us still believe that facts matter. Perhaps not today while the Happy Talk keeps everyone entertained, but soon enough that show will end as well, and then the realities—good […]

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The story of America’s new energy abundance has been accepted uncritically by too many people.  A closer look at the realities of today and the last decade, coupled with a better understanding of our energy and oil systems, reveals risks that must be discussed and included in planning for the years ahead.  This brief paper presents key information on the role of oil in the economy, the fact that world oil production has not increased meaningfully since 2005, the failure of high prices to create new supplies, the nature and limits of the oil being produced through fracking, the global challenges to oil supplies, and the likelihood that the United States will never be a net oil exporter again or truly “energy independent.” People who are part of the energy or economic debate – whether as policy makers, […]

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General Ideas This week no energy relevant developments came out of Iraq. The Islamic State seems to be still consolidating its territories, facing scant opposition from the Baghdad government. But the spectacular advances seem to be done with, at least for now. Few western media outlets are able to properly report the situation, with gory news now focusing on Israel and Gaza. The news meat-grinder has recently been profuse in news regarding the breakaway of the BRICS from the IMF and other OECD controlled institutions. This was a setting trend but that has been accelerated by the backlash of the US spying programme and, more importantly, by the intervention of NATO in Ukraine. In the midst of all this comes almost unnoticed what is probably the most important energy news of 2014: Petroleum extraction in Russia has definitely peaked. Russian authorities are openly bracing for the ensuing decline in […]

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For many years, a number of industry experts have been sounding the alarm that America, and the world, are about to run out of oil. This is nothing new. In 1914, the Bureau of Mines said that U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted by 1924. The Interior Department said global reserves would last 13 years… and that was in 1939. In 1956, Shell Oil geoscientist Marion King Hubbert advanced his peak oil theory, which said that world oil production had peaked and would begin to decline until all of the oil was gone. Every expert who’s predicted “the end of oil” has been wrong in the past. But with global energy consumption at an all-time high, and much of the world’s economy dependent on oil, the question needs to be asked: Are we about to run out of oil?… The Peak Oil Theory Hubbert, whose […]

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The Return of the Bad Old Days of Oil Shocks And we thought the bad old days of oil shocks were over. Embargoes, price spikes, gasoline lines in America, a sweater-bedecked president ordering the end of hot water in many facilities, collapsing retail sales as high gasoline and energy prices hit stores as much as a big tax increase would, economic stagflation, or worse. Well, it just might be that we were wrong to believe that danger to our continued prosperity has been removed with the death of theories about “Peak oil.” Certainly, the takeover of part of Iraq by ISIS forces, variously called “militants,” “terrorists,” “gangsters,” and in White House circles thought to be disaffected Sunnis aching to participate in the government of a democratic Iraq, has set nerves jangling among energy planners. True, most of Iraq’s oil production, at around 3 million barrels per day the second […]

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From Dr John Howard Wilhelm. Sir, Your assertion that Peak Oil is dead and that US output of liquid petroleum has regained its previous peak reached in 1970 should not go unchallenged (“ Looking past the death of Peak Oil ”, Editorial, June 17). According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, US field production of crude oil in 1970 was 9.6m barrels a day. For 2013 it was 7.4m b/d. That is, in 2013 US crude oil production stood at 77 per cent of its annual 1970 peak. More IN Letters If one looks at the facts, the situation is far more fraught than implied by your analysis later in the piece. Earlier data from the Bakken oilfield indicated that annual production per well averaged 85,000 barrels a year initially with a decline rate of 40 per cent a year, which implies on a compounded basis 856 […]

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Post Carbon Senior Fellow Richard Heinberg was interviewed on peak oil and energy transition options at RT. 3 Comments on "Heinberg on peak oil and options for energy transition" Davey on Fri, 20th Jun 2014 8:17 am  Energy transition will have to include drastic changes in attitudes and lifestyles. This will “Only” happen with a ground shaking crisis where BAU still functions but at a precarious level. After all we are on a knife edge of collapse from here on out. Collapse means little energy to zero energy in many locations. Last crisis sooner the better spoken objectively. On the subjective side “BAU” if you can hear me I need 2 years please. Obama had a bit of straightforwardness yesterday : “It is in our national security interests not to see an all-out civil war inside of Iraq, not just for humanitarian reasons, but because that ultimately can be […]

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Those of us who have some grasp of the urgent dilemmas posed by climate change and peak oil face a terrible conundrum. The whole system of industrial civilization is moving toward collapse. How can we reverse course to avert an unprecedented series of crises that might entail massive human mortality and the more or less permanent crippling of planetary ecosystems? I can think of two broad strategies: Top down. Convince the folks in charge that it’s in their interest to change direction—that is, to reorganize financial, food, transport, and manufacturing systems on a no-growth, low-carbon model. Advantage: this audience at least theoretically has the power to organize a comprehensive and rapid energy descent. Recall the rapidity with which the US re-organized its economy at the start of World War II. Disadvantages: the elites’ incentives are all in the current direction of growth-at-any-cost, many of the key players remain in […]

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Advances in technology will continue to ensure that there are adequate reserves of oil and gas, as fears over supply recede, according to BP’s head of technology, David Eyton. Addressing the 21st World Petroleum Congress in Moscow, Eyton said that generally speaking the theory of peak oil has had its time. There may be other reasons for demand declines, but technology has enabled an increase in reserves. The industry has an excellent track record to increase production and replace reserves, enabled by a sustained high oil price and technology developments over the last 30 years, he said. The potential to enhance oil recovery from reservoirs is very significant, he said, adding that the average oil recovery rate from reserves in the world today is estimated about 35%. “You […]

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Advances in technology will continue to ensure that there are adequate reserves of oil and gas, as fears over supply recede, according to BP’s head of technology, David Eyton. Addressing the 21st World Petroleum Congress in Moscow, Eyton said that generally speaking the theory of peak oil has had its time. There may be other reasons for demand declines, but technology has enabled an increase in reserves. The industry has an excellent track record to increase production and replace reserves, enabled by a sustained high oil price and technology developments over the last 30 years, he said. The potential to enhance oil recovery from reservoirs is very significant, he said, adding that the average oil recovery rate from reserves in the world today is estimated about 35%. “You […]

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So Peak Oil is dead, yeah? Well, to a point. The Financial Times editorializes that while the “bell-curve” theory of production has been broadly disproved, the oil price remains stubbornly high because Peakists were right about the easy oil having been already found and drilled. North America is on course to produce 20% of the world’s oil supply by the end of this decade, and become a “titan of unprecedented proportions” in oil-products markets. So says the International Energy Agency, which points out that just a decade ago the U.S. was the largest importer of refined products. All this is thanks to that shale revolution, of course. U.S. crude-oil production in 2013 increased by a massive 15% from a year earlier , reaching the highest level since oil tycoons looked like Larry Hagman . In 2015, output should be close to the 1970 historical peak. The effect has been so […]

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With the June 16 release of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, there is some continuing good news. The end of oil and natural gas is still at least a half-century or more away. The reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios for both fossil fuels are well above 50 years. The end of oil is further away than ever. Back in 1980, the R/P ratio (a.k.a., time to depletion at current production rates) for global oil reserves was less than 30 years — now it has increased to more than 53 years. In other words, over the past 35 years we have been discovering new oil reserves at a far faster rate than we have been depleting old reserves. 14 Comments on "End of Oil and Gas Still Many Decades Away" No, we’ve simply been adding things to the list of what we call “oil.” As I said elsewhere, the […]

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Production has not peaked, but prices could be volatile Peak Oil is dead. The news that US output of liquid petroleum has regained its previous peak , reached in 1970, is enough to read the last rites over the idea that a region’s oil production will follow a shape like a bell curve, rising to a peak and then inexorably falling away. Much of the theorising about Peak Oil failed to anticipate technological progress, or understand the power of economic incentives. The US boom in production from previously uncommercial shale reserves has been made possible by advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, and made a reality by oil prices that 15 years ago barely seemed possible. More On this topic Editorial Yet while the strong form of the Peakists’ argument can be consigned to the dustbin of history, they were not entirely wrong. Producing oil has become harder, […]

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Wall Street is the government, and the New York Times is right across town.  Maybe that’s all you need to know to understand what’s happened. In January, 2011, this writer published a four-part article entitled “ The War: Did We Sacrifice a Million Lives and a $Trillion Cash Just to Hand Our Jobs to China? ”  It was long (around 40 pages) and I must admit a little confusing, because the information was so stunning that I had a difficult time understanding what I was reading. The gist of the article was that Big Oil had asked Congress in 1998 to remove the Taliban so as to allow the building of a pipeline that would let Mideastern oil go to “the right markets.”  “The right markets”?  Guess. The US and Europe, of course.  Wrong. India and China. Those, it was explained, were “the right markets” because the oil market was stagnating in the US […]

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When they got you over barrel — what are you gonna do? You pull up, and you pay their latest price … petro, you gotta have it. The turmoil in Iraq pushed up U.S. and world oil prices about 4% this week . The U.S. benchmark crude oil, West Texas Intermediate, closed at $106.91 a barrel, up 38 cents on Friday. Brent, the international benchmark, rose 31 cents to $113.41.The IEA [International Energy Agency] has forecast that Iraq, which has the world’s fifth-largest proven oil reserves, would account for 60% of production growth from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for the rest of this decade. Iraq , now producing about 3.3 million barrels a day, has become OPEC’s second-largest producer , after Saudi Arabia. Even if the fighting stays in Iraq’s north, the IEA sees an […]

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Sixty years ago, a man stood in front of a crowd that had gathered at a small hotel in San Antonio. Minutes before approaching the podium, however, he was quietly ushered off the stage to take an urgent phone call. On the other end of the line was a PR rep for one of the largest oil companies in the world, begging him not to give his speech. Luckily, Dr. Marion King Hubbert wasn’t persuaded. He went on to deliver what was arguably the most important oil prediction since Edwin Drake first drilled a hole into the Pennsylvanian soil in search of salt brine. Essentially, Dr. Hubbert believed there would be a point in time when oil production in the U.S. would peak and begin to decline. Even though his work became the basis for the peak oil theory, far too many people haven’t realized that this isn’t a […]

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US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackouts I hate to say I told you so, but… In 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed. Among my many reports exposing the geological and economic fallacies behind the shale boom narrative are this , this , this and this . Even here on the Guardian, one headline declared the IEA report shows that “ peak oil idea has gone up in flames .” But the IEA’s latest assessment has proved the detractors right all along. The agency’s World Energy Investment Outlook released this week says that US tight […]

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UK officials have claimed Britain needs fracking for industry to ‘prosper’ and ‘the economy to grow’. Increasing data challenges these claims. Photograph: Brennan Linsley/AP I hate to say I told you so, but… In 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed. Among my many reports exposing the geological and economic fallacies behind the shale boom narrative are this , this , this and this . Even here on the Guardian, one headline declared the IEA report shows that " peak oil idea has gone up in flames ." But the IEA’s latest assessment has proved the detractors right all along. […]

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Good news sells, and doesn’t rock any boats, but policy makers and politicians comforted by rosy forecasts are unable to understand the risks and properly prepare the country for long-term energy sustainability…. A more prudent, conservative US oil forecast would look very different. It would consider that, although surprises are always possible, the most productive fossil fuel resources do tend to be discovered first and produced first. It would take note of the fact that production in fracked wells declines extremely quickly, requiring an accelerating drilling treadmill to maintain—let alone grow—production, with associated collateral environmental impacts. It would assume that most tight oil plays producible at current oil prices have already been discovered and put into production, and that major new resources—if they exist—are unlikely to be forthcoming unless there is a significant rise in oil prices. In short, the forecast would be based on actual data from existing […]

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Commodities / Crude Oil When In Doubt, Worry About Oil One of the starkest oil worry pot pourri presentations – ruthlessly mingling fact, fiction and fantasy (but pretending its all fact) – can be had here http://energypolicy.columbia.edu… Steve Kopits is the Managing Director of a known and still-in-business oil and energy forecasting firm, Douglas-Westwood. Both Kopits and D-W would appear to be (still) employable, but for how much longer we can only guess. The Kopits presentation is showcased by the Dublin sustainable economy and development firm FEASTA, with an even more ghastly presentation by David Knight called ‘Peak Oil and Climate Change – Two Sides of the Same Coin?’ FEASTA says that, as it perceives things,  Global Warming and Peak Oil are the two largest threats to the planet, human life and civilization. To be sure this inevitably includes oil prices. Where is any so-called “peak oil induced” takeoff […]

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On World Environmental Day, United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon underscored that sustainable energy is the golden thread that links poverty eradication, equitable economic growth and a healthy environment. Speaking today (5 June)at the first annual Sustainable Energy for All forum, Ban pointed out three goals for 2030: “universal access to modern energy services. Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. Twice as much renewable energy in the global energy mix. Our efforts so far show that these objectives are realistic. Our focus now must be to achieve them.” He said this can bring us closer to our goals of universal energy and a life of dignity and opportunity for all. Ban said “along with its campaign on energy and women’s and children’s health, the Decade can bring us closer to our goals of universal energy and a life of dignity and opportunity for all. Modern energy […]

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The oil industry used to be a no-brainer investment. There seemed to be an infinite supply of oil, and with more and more people owning cars, demand — and thus oil prices — were rocketing. This meant that oil companies would be booming. But has anyone asked the question: what happens when the oil runs out? Oil companies such as BP (LSE: BP.L – news ) (LSE: BP) (NYSE: BP) and Shell (LSE: RDSB.L – news ) (LSE: RDSB) (NYSE: RDS-B.US) are already finding that their production is falling. They are now scouring the furthest reaches of the planet for oil, from the Artic to the Gulf of Mexico and the South Atlantic. Oil is increasingly difficult to extract But any oil they do come across is increasingly difficult, and expensive, to extract. And the Macondo tragedy shows what can happen when the oil industry tries perhaps a little too […]

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Canadian oil and gas companies will be competing head to head with lower-cost energy producers in the near future, and the country needs a better strategy to remain competitive in a post peak-oil world. According to a PwC report released May 30, Canada has four options when it comes to the future of oil and gas: continue relying on exports to the United States ; focus on building pipelines to either the west or east coasts to get oil and gas to offshore markets; or look to develop “unconventional resources” in Canada’s north. “As Canada moves from a focus on the US market toward exporting our oil production to world markets, it will fight for market share with nations that have strategic interests and the regulatory will to capture demand, particularly in the high-growth Asian market,” says the report. While Canada still has some of the largest oil reserves […]

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“First is conservation. That’s the missing piece in most proposals for dealing with peak oil. The chasm into which so many well-intentioned projects have tumbled over the last decade is that nothing available to us can support the raw extravagance of energy and resource consumption we’re used to, once cheap abundant fossil fuels aren’t there any more, so—ahem—we have to use less. Too much talk about using less in recent years, though, has been limited to urging energy and resource abstinence as a badge of moral purity, and—well, let’s just say that abstinence education did about as much good there as it does in any other context. The things that played the largest role in hammering down US energy consumption in the 1970s energy crisis were unromantic but effective techniques such as insulation, weatherstripping, and the like, all of which allow a smaller amount of energy to do the […]

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Second Conference on Economic Degrowth for Ecological Sustainability and Social Equity March 26-29th 2010, Barcelona Peak oil is not some fuzzy academic concern but a reality: for the US in 1970, for some 60 of 80 oil-producing countries and, at least for the moment, for the world since about 2005. In addition the net energy delivered to society (as opposed to the total) is declining in recent decades from 30 or more to one to ten or less to one as we have exhausted our largest, shallowest, closest to shore and highest quality oil and gas fields. While technological improvements have slowed the effects of depletion the net effects are that there is a declining EROI (Energy Return on Energy [and money] Invested). Most alternatives to oil and gas except hydroelectric or coal have a small or very small EROI, and even for these the highest EROI sites in […]

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If oil is “just another commodity,” then there shouldn’t be any connection between oil prices, debt levels, interest rates, and total rates of return. But there clearly is a connection. On one hand, spikes in oil prices are connected with recessions . According to economist James Hamilton, ten out of eleven post-World War II recessions have been associated with spikes in oil prices . There also is a logical reason for oil prices spikes to be associated with recession: oil is used in making and transporting food, and in commuting to work. These are necessities for most people. If these costs rise, there is a need to cut back on non-essential goods, leading to layoffs in discretionary sectors, and thus recession. On the other hand, the manipulation of interest rates and the addition of governmental debt (by spending more than is collected in tax dollars) are the primary ways […]

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Generals and others have talked about the dangers of conflicts and/or wars being generated as resources are depleted ( Natural Resource Depletion and the Changing Geopolitical Landscape ). A conflict between Vietnam and China is an example of the tensions that can arise – in this case oil is the resource ( China Blames Vietnam ). But as the TIME cover shows, using the oil resources is just as dangerous, or more so, than running out of oil is –in other words it is a catch-22, a conundrum, or a no-win situation any way we choose to look at this situation that is only getting worse. Britain and France over in Europe are facing the problem of depletion: In just over five years Britain will have run out of oil, coal and gas, researchers have warned . A report by the Global Sustainability Institute said shortages would increase dependency […]

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Time for another roundup of some of the better peak oil stories from the last few months: Former BP geologist: Peak oil is here and it will ‘break economies’ (Raw Story) US Army colonel: world is sleepwalking to a global energy crisis (The Guardian) Peak oil theory, as originally conceived by Hubbert and his followers, was largely governed by natural forces.  As we have seen, however, these can be overpowered by the application of increasingly sophisticated technology.  Reservoirs of energy once considered inaccessible can be brought into production, and others once deemed exhausted can be returned to production; rather than being finite, the world’s petroleum base now appears virtually inexhaustible. Does this mean that global oil output will continue rising, year after year, without ever reaching a peak?  That appears unlikely.  What seems far more probable is that we will see a slow tapering of output over the next […]

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The modern world is totally dependent on a continuing supply of energy from oil and other fossil fuels. However, recent natural disasters, global political upheavals, price hikes in the cost of gas, heating oil and electricity, and the eye-watering cost of filling up a car are signposts toward an unexpected, different, energy-constrained future. The central theme of this book is this: as traditional energy sources and in particular oil start to run short, we are sleepwalking into an energy crisis which will have farreaching effects on every part of the modern world. Christians and the church will have to grapple with these issues if we want to understand the context in which we will live, worship, minister and witness in the years ahead. In this book we aim to raise awareness of ‘peak oil’ and its consequences amongst Christians, and to prepare the church in practical ways for the […]

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Diving Into Stories of Energy Transition with Chris Nelder Part Two of Four.  Link to Part 1 . A transcript of our interview on Extraenvironmentalist #76  by Scott Bohachyk Editor’s note:  Last time we discussed nuclear power and the potential role it may have in the 21st century energy transition. This time we are discussing the story of peak oil and whether it has any validity. Justin: A core part of the story we were just talking about, in the audio we were playing from the film Pandora’s Promise film is the idea that we’re going to hit 9 or 10 billion people and consume two, three, four times as much energy as we do now, but one story that really counters that is the idea of geology limiting oil output and the peak oil story. Now that we can reflect back on a few years of recession, and […]

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Only weeks after the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott introduced “Team Australia to help China build the Asian Century” to the Boao Forum on the island of Hainan in the South China Sea we get a foretaste how this much hyped Asian Century will look like: many fights over oil and gas. In a well prepared action China moved a 30,000 ton, 1$ billion semi-submersible drilling rig (HD 981) into position in contested waters 220 kms off the Vietnamese coast near the Paracel islands, and just 330 km South East of Hainan where Abbott spoke. Vietnamese coast guard boats tried to interrupt the positioning of the rig but were attacked by water cannons and rammed by Chinese boats. For Vietnam control over offshore oil and gas is absolutely vital because oil production has peaked 10 years ago and gas is expected to peak by 2018. Abbott would neither know […]

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  1.  Oil and the Global Economy Last week’s trading left futures prices little changed. New York oil closed Friday at $99.99 a barrel and London closed at $107.89. As has been the case for several weeks, the US crude inventory, weak demand, and the Ukrainian and Libyan situations were the main drivers of the oil markets. US crude imports were down markedly the week before last leading to a drop in inventories along the Gulf coast and even total US crude inventories for the first time in many weeks. Some analysts are wondering if Gulf Coast storage facilities can absorb much more oil. Natural gas futures dropped sharply on Thursday after the inventory report showed that the warmer weather has led to natural gas being injected into storage caverns at close to the normal pace. Futures prices are down about 30 cents per million from the $4.85 level […]

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[The] increased oil expenditure is drawing money away from the rest of the economy. Overall, were it not for the price increase [from the historical average of $25.00 per barrel], the US would have an extra $1.5 billion per day to spend in the broader economy, or $543 billion per year. Instead, all that money is being spent on expensive oil, which is distorting the economy. Is it any wonder oil-dependent economies are struggling to grow their economies? Could it be that expensive oil signifies the twilight of industrial growth, as we have known it…? At the current price of $105 …, the world spends $9.45 billion per day on oil, or $3.5 trillion per year. This is a difference of $7.2 billion every day, an extra cost to the global economy which is largely a result of crude oil having peaked. It lacks credibility to pronounce the death […]

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Our lead story: This week Stanford said that it would divest all of its investments in coal mining companies, becoming the wealthiest US university to pledge divestment from sectors of the fossil fuel industry. Erin gives you her take on the situation. For our interviews today, we look at peak oil theory with Richard Heinberg and James Hamilton. Heinberg argues that we have reached peak oil supply and that will have major economic consequences for our future prospects of economic growth. Hamilton on the other hand sees this as more of a demand issue. Take a look. Finally in today’s Big Deal, Edward Harrison and Erin take a look at the return of the subprime auto loan market. Is this another example of perverse incentives in the search for yield? Edward gives you his take.

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