Category: IEA

Oil futures surged in mid-June by $5/bbl to a nine-month high of more than $115/bbl for Brent as Islamist forces gained ground in Iraq, but later reversed their gains on confidence that Baghdad’s southern fields would remain untouched and improved prospects for a recovery in Libyan exports. Brent last traded at $108/bbl, WTI at $102/bbl. OPEC supplies were virtually unchanged in June at 30.03 mb/d, as lower Iraqi production offset gains in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Angola. The ‘call’ on OPEC for 2H14 was cut by 350 kb/d to 30.6 mb/d on improved non-OPEC supply and lower demand, and is forecast to dip to 29.8 mb/d in 2015 from 29.9 mb/d in 2014. Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2015, down slightly on 2013 and 2014 forecast […]

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Global oil demand will rise at the fastest pace in five years in 2015 as China leads gains in emerging economies, the International Energy Agency said. World oil consumption will increase next year by 1.4 million barrels a day, the agency said in its first monthly report to assess 2015. The rate of growth will be the fastest since 2010. It’s also higher than a projected increase of 1.2 million a day in supplies from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the agency said. Demand growth will be led by China and other countries outside the 34-member Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development. While prices have retreated in the past month as threats to supplies in Libya and Iraq abate, they remain “historically high and there is no sign of a turning of the tide just yet,” according to the report. “The global economy is still expected to […]

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Geopolitical tensions and the shaky economic recovery means there is little room for complacency in oil market in the next 12 months, the International Energy Agency warned Friday. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog forecast rising demand growth and a steady increase in supply from non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for 2015. It said global demand for oil will accelerate to 1.4 million barrels a day from 1.2 million barrels a day this year, while oil supply from outside OPEC will increase by around 1.2 million barrels a day, continuing the trend of robust non-OPEC production. However, the IEA warned that the risks associated with its 2015 demand forecast are "particularly high" due to the uncertain global economic recovery and geopolitical tensions in a host of countries, including Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, are adding to the macroeconomic uncertainties. The same political […]

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Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 13th June 2014 Oil futures prices for Brent rose above $112/bbl on 12 June, the highest level this year, in the wake of a bold military campaign by Sunni insurgents in Iraq and continued supply outages in Libya.An apparent build in China’s crude strategic reserve in April and May, at an average 1.2 mb/d, is also strengthening markets. Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.3 mb/d in 2014, to 92.8 mb/d, a modest acceleration on 2013 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves. Global oil demand is set to increase sharply from a low of 91.4 mb/d in 1Q14 to a high of 94 mb/d in […]

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Recently, the IEA published  a “Special Report” called  World Energy Investment Outlook . Lets’s start with things I agree with: 1.  World needs $48 trillion in investment to meet its energy needs to 2035.  This is certainly true, if we assume, as  the IEA assumes , that world economic growth will actually improve a bit, from 3.3% per year in the 1990 to 2011 period to 3.6% per year in the 2011 to 2035 period. It is likely that the growth in investment needs will be even higher than the IEA indicates. In my view, this is a  CYA report . The IEA sees trouble ahead. There is no way that investment of the needed amount (which is likely far more than $48 trillion) can be met. With the publication of this report, the IEA can say, “We told you so. You didn’t invest enough. That is why energy supply […]

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It will require $48 trillion in investments through 2035 to meet the world’s growing energy needs, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday from Paris. IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement the reliability and sustainability of future energy supplies depends on a high level of investment. "But this won’t materialize unless there are credible policy frameworks in place as well as stable access to long-term sources of finance," she said. "Neither of these conditions should be taken for granted." She said there was a real risk that any investments in global energy could be misdirected because the environmental impacts of various resources may not be reflected in the overall costs. The IEA’s report says around 15 percent of annual investments target renewable energy resources, while the bulk of spending, more than $1 trillion, is directed at fossil fuels. More than half of […]

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A top energy watchdog said the world will need more Middle Eastern oil in the next decade, as the current U.S. boom wanes. But the International Energy Agency warned that Persian Gulf producers may still fail to fill the gap, risking higher oil prices. In its first update to the agency’s energy investment outlook in more than a decade, the IEA—which represents some of the world’s largest consumer nations—said it sees "growth in oil demand [becoming] steadily more reliant on investment in the Middle East." Surging American production from tight oil—extracted from shale formations in places like Texas and North Dakota—has led the agency and other oil-market analysts to predict the U.S. could leapfrog the world’s largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, by 2020. That has triggered debate in Washington about easing a long-standing ban on most crude exports from American shores. It has also engendered hope of […]

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National Public Radio’s “ Morning Edition ” reported this morning: NPR’s Business News starts with the outlook for oil. This is a change of course – the International Energy Agency has released a report on global energy investment. And this group predicts the United States will have to rely more heavily on Middle East oil in the coming years, as North American sources start to dry up a little bit. U.S. energy production has boomed recently, much of it coming from oil and gas extracted from shale. But the IEA says U.S. production will start to lose steam around 2020, and that would put more bargaining power back in the hands of OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia. This is quite interesting, given that in 2012, the IEA forecast that the U.S. would overtake Saudia Arabia in oil production by 2020, and would be a net oil exporter by […]

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