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Energy agency predicts oil shortage unless supply boosted

Industrialised countries could be facing the prospect of an oil supply squeeze and higher prices later this year unless production is lifted, according to a report just released by the International Energy Agency. In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA says recent production gains will not be sufficient to meet market needs in the second half of the year when consumption picks up. "Crude prices remain elevated and forecast balances call for a significant rise in OPEC production from current levels for the second half of the year," the IEA said. The IEA says OPEC nations will have to increase third quarter production by another 900,000 barrels per day from current levels to 30.7 million barrels per day to meet the expected demand. "While OPEC has more than enough capacity to deliver, it remains to be seen whether it will manage to overcome the above-ground hurdles that have […]

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Highlights of the latest OMR

il prices rose marginally month-on-month in April, supported by continued tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, supply outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries and stepped up crude buying as refiners complete seasonal turnarounds. ICE Brent futures were last trading at $109.85/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $102.10/bbl. Forecast global demand growth for 2014 has been raised marginally since last month’s Report , to 1.32 mb/d, on higher 1Q14 data. Baseline adjustments to 2012 add 0.1 mb/d to the historical average and total demand, now pegged at 92.8 mb/d in 2014.  Global supplies rose 700 kb/d month-on-month to 92.1 mb/d in April, with roughly half of […]

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Highlights of the latest OMR

Welcome to the OMR Subscriber’s website Please check that your usage of this website conforms to the licence you subscribe to at http://www.iea.org/oilmar/licenceomr.html. Please complete our reader survey to win a copy of the MTOMR 2014: www.surveymonkey.com/s/IEA_OMR_Survey Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 15th May 2014 Oil prices rose marginally month-on-month in April, supported by continued tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, supply outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries and stepped up crude buying as refiners complete seasonal turnarounds. ICE Brent futures were last trading at $109.85/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $102.10/bbl. Forecast global demand growth for 2014 has been raised marginally since last month’s Report , to 1.32 mb/d, on higher 1Q14 data. Baseline adjustments to 2012 add 0.1 mb/d to the historical average and total demand, now pegged at 92.8 mb/d in 2014.  Global supplies rose 700 kb/d month-on-month to 92.1 mb/d in April, with roughly half of […]

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International Energy Agency – Oil Market Report

Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 11th April 2014 Crude oil prices were range-bound in March, with supply outages in the MENA and Russia-Ukraine tensions countering seasonally weaker demand. By early April, market expectations of an imminent restart of Libyan exports pressured Brent prices lower. Brent last traded at $107.75/bbl.   The forecast of global demand growth has been marginally trimmed to 1.3 mb/d for 2014, reflecting downward adjustments to the projection of Russian demand. The absolute demand estimate remains roughly unchanged, as upward revisions to baseline non-OECD Asian demand counterbalance lower Russian growth. Global supplies plunged by 1.2 mb/d to 91.75 mb/d in March, led by steeply lower OPEC output , but remained up by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year, as non‐OPEC growth of 1.98 mb/d more […]

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IEA Trims 2014 Oil Demand Growth Forecast

The International Energy Agency on Friday highlighted ongoing "elevated" risks in the oil market, as it trimmed its forecast for an increase in demand this year following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, but also warned of lower oil production. In its closely watched monthly report, the Paris-based energy watchdog lowered its 2014 forecast for Russian oil demand by 55,000 barrels a day to total 3.5 million barrels a day following the country’s annexation of Crimea last month and subsequent downgrades of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s views of the country’s growth. Further economic sanctions and pressure on Russia’s economy could cut its oil demand by a further 150,000 barrels a day this year, the IEA said. The IEA’s overall forecast for the increase in oil demand this year was cut by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day. The IEA also lowered […]

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IEA Says OPEC Will Need to Pump More Crude in Second Half

OPEC will need to pump more crude in the second half of the year to meet demand after its production plunged to a five-month low in March, according to the International Energy Agency . Supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries “plummeted” by 890,000 barrels a day to 29.62 million barrels a day in March, the Paris-based IEA said today in its monthly oil market report. That’s below OPEC’s collective 30 million production target and means the group will have to increase output in the second half of the year, it said. “OPEC supply actually registered a steep drop in March from February highs, but this setback looks likely to be short-lived,” the IEA, an adviser to oil-consuming nations, said. “Prospects for OPEC output are also on the rise – though not without considerable political risk.” Brent crude oil prices have dropped 3.2 percent this year to trade […]

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IEA Highlights Increases in Oil Supply

A relentless increase in oil supply from the U.S. and Canada and a surprise surge in Iraqi crude production last month is offsetting demand pressures bought about by the cold winter in the U.S. and geopolitical concerns over the rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the International Energy Agency said Friday. "While international tensions may be on the rise, pressure on oil markets, ceteris paribus, seems set to ease," the Paris-based energy watchdog said in its closely-watched monthly report on the oil market. The cold snap in the U.S., which has seen commercial oil inventories in industrialized countries plummet this winter to hit a whopping 154 million barrels below the seasonal average last month, is abating. Meanwhile, oil supply looks comfortable. The IEA expects supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to rise by 2 million barrels a day in the first quarter of […]

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IEA says supply surge to ease oil tensions

The International Energy Agency expects the pressure on global oil markets to ease in spite of rising geopolitical tensions because of surging supply from Iraq and other producers. “While international tensions may be on the rise, the pressure on oil markets . . . seems set to ease”, the Paris-based group said in its widely followed monthly report, noting the extreme cold weather that had dug into US oil stocks in January had abated. US oil prices rose above $100 for the first time in five months in February because of exceptionally cold weather in the US and robust refining demand. Brent, the international marker, also rose, supported by fresh supply outages in Libya and the tensions in the Ukraine. However, in recent weeks prices have eased back. Nymex April West Texas Intermediate is currently trading at $98.36 a barrel, while ICE Brent April is at $107.44. The IEA, which advises Western governments […]

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Despite Shale, Middle East Remains Key to Oil Demand

The US shale revolution has helped reshape the global energy market, but Middle Eastern oil will remain vital for meeting future Asian energy demand, said IEA’s Fatih Birol. The U.S. shale revolution has helped reshape the global energy market, but Middle Eastern oil will remain vital for meeting future Asian energy demand, Fatih Birol, chief economist for the International Energy Agency (IEA), told attendees Feb. 21 at an event at Rice University in Houston. The significant growth that has occurred in recent years in U.S. unconventional oil production surpassed initial estimates by the IEA, which initially forecast that the United States would overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer in 2017. This shift is now expected to occur next year, according IEA’s 2013 World Energy Outlook. Despite this growth, Middle East oil will still be needed to meet global oil demand in Asia, said […]

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Non-OPEC production lauded by IEA

– Production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries helped with the increase in oil output since last year, the IEA said Thursday from Paris. The International Energy Agency said in its monthly market report oil supplies since last January are up because of "steep growth" from non-OPEC members. The IEA, however, said global oil supplies in January declined by 290,000 barrels per day to 92.1 million bpd because of lower non-OPEC output. OPEC in its monthly market report, published Wednesday, said oil production from the Americas meant demand for OPEC crude from those markets was down. In terms of production, it said winter operations in the Bakken oil reserve area in North Dakota, the second-largest oil producing state in the United States, decreased because colder temperatures "freezes" the more viscous type of oil found there. For OPEC members, IEA said oil supply increased marginally […]

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