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US oil imports from Opec at 30-year low

©AFP US imports of crude oil from Opec nations are at their lowest level in almost 30 years, underlining the impact of the shale revolution on global trade flows. The lower dependence on imports from the cartel, which pumps a third of the world’s crude, comes amid advances in hydraulic fracturing that has propelled domestic US production to about 9m barrels a day – the highest level since the mid-1980s. In August, Opec’s share of US crude oil imports dropped to 40 per cent – accounting for 2.9m b/d – the lowest since May 1985, according to Financial Times analysis of US Department of Energy data. At its 1976 peak it stood at about 88 per cent. The decline in US appetite for foreign oil, alongside expanding eastern demand, has meant producers from the Middle East, west Africa and Latin America have turned towards Asia. But despite the shale […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Confused OPEC Watchers Are More Divided Than Ever

To understand just how contentious next week’s OPEC meeting will be, take a look at the confusion it’s created among professionals paid to predict the outcome. The 20 analysts surveyed this week by Bloomberg are perfectly divided, with half forecasting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut supply on Nov. 27 in Vienna to stem a plunge in prices while the other half expect no change. In the seven years since the surveys began, it’s the first time participants were evenly split. The only episode that created a similar debate was the OPEC meeting in late 2007, when crude was soaring to a record. The split now reflects the difficult choice OPEC nations have to make. They could cut output to revive crude prices from a four-year low, at the risk of losing more market share to rival suppliers, including U.S. shale drillers. Or they could do nothing […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Confused OPEC Watchers Are More Divided Than Ever

To understand just how contentious next week’s OPEC meeting will be, take a look at the confusion it’s created among professionals paid to predict the outcome. The 20 analysts surveyed this week by Bloomberg are perfectly divided, with half forecasting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut supply on Nov. 27 in Vienna to stem a plunge in prices while the other half expect no change. In the seven years since the surveys began, it’s the first time participants were evenly split. The only episode that created a similar debate was the OPEC meeting in late 2007, when crude was soaring to a record. The split now reflects the difficult choice OPEC nations have to make. They could cut output to revive crude prices from a four-year low, at the risk of losing more market share to rival suppliers, including U.S. shale drillers. Or they could do nothing […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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IEA Gets Budapest Offer With Paris Lease Expiring in Two Years

The International Energy Agency , the adviser to 29 governments, got an offer to move to Budapest. The lease on its premises in Paris, home since 1974, is due to expire within two years. Hungary is willing to house the IEA for free, according to the official government gazette. The agency employs 240 people, including analysts who produce reports, compile statistics and make policy recommendations on energy issues. The lease on the IEA’s current secretariat expires in 2017, Greg Frost, a spokesman for the organization said by e-mail today. “The IEA and its 29 Members are therefore considering several options for our future accommodation,” he said, without mentioning Budapest. “Any decision on accommodation rests with the IEA Governing Board, and a decision is expected to be taken within the next year.” The IEA was formed in response to the 1970s oil crisis. Its members, including the U.S., Germany and […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC Diplomacy Picks Up With Iraq-to-Libya Chiefs

OPEC producers are stepping up their diplomatic visits before the group’s meeting in two weeks, potentially seeking a consensus on how to react to oil prices that have plunged to a four-year low. Libyan Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani flew to Riyadh yesterday just as Iraqi President Fouad Masoum left the kingdom after a two-day visit where he met with King Abdullah , the official Saudi Press Agency reported. Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela ’s foreign minister and representative to OPEC, held talks in Algeria and Qatar. Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi toured Latin America. “The Saudis will not walk the road alone, they want to see everyone share the burden with them,” Kuwait-based analyst Kamel al-Harami said by phone. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is trying to build consensus among fellow members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries before they meet Nov. 27 in Vienna, he said. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC MOMR October Production Data

OPEC just published their November Monthly Oil Market Report  which contains crude only production data for all OPEC nations. The only big surprise was that everyone had declining production except Libya and Algeria, that is according to “secondary sources”. OPEC Secondary Sources I find it interesting that Venezuela has, for the last several months, refused to give OPEC their production data. All charts below are in the charts below are in thousand barrels per day with the last data point October 2014 and is based on OPEC’s “secondary sources”. I have decided to post all OPEC charts in this post. OPEC production declined 226,000 bpd. September production was revised only slightly, up 5,000 bpd. Algeria has stopped their decline, temporally at least. Not much news from Angola except that production was down 66,000 bpd in October. Ecuador which had been increasing production since 2010 now seems to have hit resistance. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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In New Oil Order, OPEC’s Choice Is Pricing Power or Sales

The decision OPEC faces at this month’s meeting isn’t just over whether to cut oil production. It’s a choice of whether the group is willing to fight to maintain the sway it has had over crude markets for decades. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, buffeted by plunging prices, could reassert control by cutting output, said Societe Generale SA, ceding more market share to U.S. shale oil producers. The alternative — waiting to see if lower prices choke off the North American shale boom — would usher in a “new oil order” where pricing power is handed to drillers in Texas and North Dakota , according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “We’ve not seen a turning point like this in decades,” Mike Wittner , Societe Generale’s head of oil market research in New York , said by phone yesterday. “Is OPEC going to abdicate its role in the market? […]

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IEA sees world oil demand rising to 104 million b/d in 2040 from 90 million b/d in 2013

Home | News & Analysis | Latest News Headlines | IEA sees world oil demand rising to 104 million b/d in 2040 from 90 million b/d in 2013 London (Platts)–12Nov2014/137 am EST/637 GMT The International Energy Agency has delivered a new warning about future supply of oil and gas as turmoil continues in the Middle East and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains unresolved. In its latest annual World Energy Outlook to be released later Wednesday, the Paris-based IEA said current ample supply of oil should not leave consumers complacent, especially given the increasing dependence on Middle East producers. "The short-term picture of a well-supplied oil market should not disguise the challenges that lie ahead as reliance grows on a relatively small number of producers," the IEA said, in an apparent reference to current expectations that rising supply will more than meet incremental world oil demand in the […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple