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OPEC’s Two-Decade Ride on Global Growth Stalls: Chart of the Day

For the past two decades, growth in the global economy spelled higher revenues for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Not any more. The CHART OF THE DAY shows how last year was the first since 1993 that the value of OPEC’s total crude exports didn’t track the direction of global gross domestic product. The bottom panel shows how the group supplying about 40 percent of the world’s oil fetched lower average prices and also shipped fewer barrels year on year. Production among OPEC’s 12 members fell 2.5 percent to average 31.6 million barrels a day last year, data from OPEC’s Annual Statistic Bulletin showed on July 18. Libya’s output slumped 31 percent amid political protests at oilfields and export terminals. Output from Iran , whose exports are subject to international sanctions, fell by 4.4 percent. The group’s members also consumed about 1 percent a day more domestically. “It’s […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC Says Oil Production, Market Share Fell in 2013

OPEC said Friday its crude production and market share fell last year as a boom in U.S. shale dents demand for its oil. In an annual statistical report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said its collective crude production was down 2.5% during 2013 on an annual basis. OPEC’s share of total global production in 2013 averaged 43.4%, down from the 44.6% in 2012, it said. Global oil production and demand rose last year but was largely captured by OPEC’s rivals, notably a rise in nonconventional U.S. production. The group said in early July demand for its oil will continue to decline next year, when it is likely to fall by 300,000 barrels a day. In the report, OPEC also said its members’ petroleum export revenue fell to $1.112 trillion in 2013 from $1.208 trillion the previous year. Among the most significant increases in reserves, Iraq’s crude oil […]

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Asia-Pacific taking on most OPEC crude

Asia-Pacific economies took on more crude oil from OPEC in 2013 than any other region in the world, the organization said in an annual report published Friday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Asia-Pacific economies imported an average 14.3 million barrels of OPEC crude oil per day in 2013, or 59.3 percent of the oil exported by member states. Asian economies are growing at a faster rate than other major markets. OPEC said in its 97-page annual report oil demand rose most notably in China, Thailand and Indonesia. Europe, which is still struggling to emerge from recession, took an average 4.1 million bpd of OPEC crude last year, or 17.2 percent of its output, while North American imported an average 3.9 million bpd, or 16.3 percent of OPEC’s crude. Oil production from North America, the United States in particular, has increased to the point that markets there are […]

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IEA warns U.S. on energy security

Energy security is more about diversity than abundance in any one particular resource, the head of the IEA warned the United States. International Energy Agency Executive Director Marian van der Hoeven told delegates gathered in Washington for the annual conference of the Energy Information Administration there may be trouble on the horizon for the United States. "Energy security is about much more than supply, and it’s about more than the here and now," she warned . Advancements in drilling technology have given exploration and production companies access to oil and natural gas reserves previously inaccessible. This, in turn, has moved the United States to the top of the list of global energy producers. The peak likely won’t last much beyond the 2030s, the executive director warned. While oil and natural gas are abundant now , policymakers on Capitol Hill need to look to the future energy scenario. "It’s in […]

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OPEC output steady, IEA says

Lower oil production from Iraq was offset by gains elsewhere from members of OPEC, the International Energy Agency said Friday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly market report for June production from Iraq had declined. IEA, based in Paris, said it saw little overall change from the 12 members that combine to represent about 60 percent of the total petroleum traded internationally "OPEC supplies were virtually unchanged in June at 30.03 million barrels per day, as lower Iraqi production offset gains in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Angola," IEA said in its monthly market report . Libya, a once-major North African oil producer, has struggled to return to a pre-war production level of around 1.4 million barrels of oil per day. A Sunni-led insurgency in Iraq, meanwhile, is threatening the country’s oil sector. OPEC in a June statement said there is sufficient oil production from […]

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Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014

Oil futures surged in mid-June by $5/bbl to a nine-month high of more than $115/bbl for Brent as Islamist forces gained ground in Iraq, but later reversed their gains on confidence that Baghdad’s southern fields would remain untouched and improved prospects for a recovery in Libyan exports. Brent last traded at $108/bbl, WTI at $102/bbl. OPEC supplies were virtually unchanged in June at 30.03 mb/d, as lower Iraqi production offset gains in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Angola. The ‘call’ on OPEC for 2H14 was cut by 350 kb/d to 30.6 mb/d on improved non-OPEC supply and lower demand, and is forecast to dip to 29.8 mb/d in 2015 from 29.9 mb/d in 2014. Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2015, down slightly on 2013 and 2014 forecast […]

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Oil Demand Seen by IEA Rising Fastest Since ’10 on China

Global oil demand will rise at the fastest pace in five years in 2015 as China leads gains in emerging economies, the International Energy Agency said. World oil consumption will increase next year by 1.4 million barrels a day, the agency said in its first monthly report to assess 2015. The rate of growth will be the fastest since 2010. It’s also higher than a projected increase of 1.2 million a day in supplies from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the agency said. Demand growth will be led by China and other countries outside the 34-member Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development. While prices have retreated in the past month as threats to supplies in Libya and Iraq abate, they remain “historically high and there is no sign of a turning of the tide just yet,” according to the report. “The global economy is still expected to […]

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IEA Warns Little Room for Complacency in Oil Markets in 2015

Geopolitical tensions and the shaky economic recovery means there is little room for complacency in oil market in the next 12 months, the International Energy Agency warned Friday. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog forecast rising demand growth and a steady increase in supply from non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for 2015. It said global demand for oil will accelerate to 1.4 million barrels a day from 1.2 million barrels a day this year, while oil supply from outside OPEC will increase by around 1.2 million barrels a day, continuing the trend of robust non-OPEC production. However, the IEA warned that the risks associated with its 2015 demand forecast are "particularly high" due to the uncertain global economic recovery and geopolitical tensions in a host of countries, including Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, are adding to the macroeconomic uncertainties. The same political […]

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OPEC Sees U.S. Fueling Acceleration in Global Oil Demand Next Year

Rising U.S. oil consumption will reverse a four-year demand decline in rich nations and drive a pick up world-wide next year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Thursday. The assessment–the first given for 2015 by the oil producers’ group–shows the U.S. is scooping more of its own oil amid a production boom just as OPEC’s role continues to decrease. In its monthly oil market report, OPEC said global oil demand growth will pick up next year amid robust economic growth. World consumption will increase by 1.21 million barrels a day in 2015, compared with a rise of 1.13 million barrels a day this year, the group said. Oil consumption has recently been falling in most industrialized nations due to fuel-conservation measures and economic woes. But in 2015, the accelerating demand growth will be partly driven by an increase in oil demand in industrialized nations […]

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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Highlights Unrest in Iraq put upward pressure on world oil prices last month, helping North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices reach their highest daily level of the year at just over $115/barrel (bbl) on June 19. North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices increased from a monthly average of $110/bbl in May to $112/bbl in June. This was the 12th consecutive month in which the average Brent crude oil spot price ranged between $107/bbl and $112/bbl. EIA projects Brent crude oil prices to average $110/bbl in 2014 and $105/bbl in 2015, $2/bbl and $3/bbl higher than projected in last month’s STEO, respectively. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price discount to Brent is expected to average $9/bbl and $10/bbl in 2014 and 2015, respectively. During this year’s April-through-September summer driving season, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $3.66/gallon (gal), 8 cents higher than last year. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple