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Platts Big Five: Is anyone surprised that Iraq tops our list?

Welcome to The Oil Big Five for July 2014, where we list the big issues that are keeping our Platts oil experts busy around the globe. You can find our last posting here , which had the problem of not posting comments for a short time when it first went up. We really appreciate everyone who commented on the blog once it was fixed, though, as well as those who sent us feedback on Twitter. The latest round-up of reader comments can be found here , and be sure to comment again for the follow-up to this post. Here are the biggest oil issues or trends that our editors and experts nominated to be a part of the post this month. 1. Iraq’s political unrest and its energy implications This is almost a gimme, because it’s on everyone’s minds. This isn’t just one issue , though, because there are […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC May Bring Forward Next Meeting if Iraq Crisis Disrupts Exports

Baiji oil refinery, north of Baghdad. Reuters LONDON—The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could meet ahead of schedule if the continuing crisis in Iraq disrupts the country’s exports of crude oil, officials from Gulf states that are members of the cartel said Wednesday. At the end of its latest meeting last week, OPEC said it would keep its production ceiling for 2014 at 30 million barrels of oil a day and would next meet on Nov. 27. But that plan could change if the oil supply from Iraq is disrupted. Iraqi oil exports currently run at around 2.5 million barrels of oil a day. The psychological impact of the Iraqi unrest has been "big on the market , and we did not calculate this could happen when we left the ceiling unchanged," one Gulf oil official said. With Libyan oil supplies also hampered by political unrest in that […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC facing 'headwinds,' IEA says

North American oil output is expected to rise at the same time OPEC begins to face strong "headwinds," the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. "By the end of the decade, North America will have the capacity to become a net exporter of oil liquids," IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement from Paris . "At the same time, while OPEC remains a vital supplier to the market, it faces significant headwinds in expanding capacity." The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its latest market report global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.14 million barrels per day this year. It expects the global economy will need 29.7 million barrels of its crude oil per day in 2014, a decline of 400,000 bpd from the previous year. IEA in its annual five-year outlook report backed OPEC’s estimates, noting global oil demand is expected to […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC facing ‘headwinds,’ IEA says

North American oil output is expected to rise at the same time OPEC begins to face strong "headwinds," the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. "By the end of the decade, North America will have the capacity to become a net exporter of oil liquids," IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement from Paris . "At the same time, while OPEC remains a vital supplier to the market, it faces significant headwinds in expanding capacity." The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its latest market report global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.14 million barrels per day this year. It expects the global economy will need 29.7 million barrels of its crude oil per day in 2014, a decline of 400,000 bpd from the previous year. IEA in its annual five-year outlook report backed OPEC’s estimates, noting global oil demand is expected to […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013

Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 13th June 2014 Oil futures prices for Brent rose above $112/bbl on 12 June, the highest level this year, in the wake of a bold military campaign by Sunni insurgents in Iraq and continued supply outages in Libya.An apparent build in China’s crude strategic reserve in April and May, at an average 1.2 mb/d, is also strengthening markets. Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.3 mb/d in 2014, to 92.8 mb/d, a modest acceleration on 2013 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves. Global oil demand is set to increase sharply from a low of 91.4 mb/d in 1Q14 to a high of 94 mb/d in […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC Update and news from Iraq

The new  OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report just came out with their Crude Only production numbers for May. All data in the OPEC charts are in thousands barrels per day. OPEC 12 There was very little in production changes and no surprises in the May data. Total OPEC production was up 142,000 barrels per day and that was after the April numbers had been revised up by 29,000 bpd. Everyone is concerned about Iraq. Iraq’s April numbers were revised down by 22,000 bpd and May production was up 18,000 above that revised number. Iraqi production stood at 3,331,000 bpd in May but I expect that number will change in June and most definitely in July. Saudi Arabia Of course everyone is concerned about Saudi Arabia. Nothing much happened to Saudi Production in May either. April production was revised up 35,000 bpd and May production was up 32,000 above that. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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IEA Investment Report – Stumbling on the Real Story

Recently, the IEA published  a “Special Report” called  World Energy Investment Outlook . Lets’s start with things I agree with: 1.  World needs $48 trillion in investment to meet its energy needs to 2035.  This is certainly true, if we assume, as  the IEA assumes , that world economic growth will actually improve a bit, from 3.3% per year in the 1990 to 2011 period to 3.6% per year in the 2011 to 2035 period. It is likely that the growth in investment needs will be even higher than the IEA indicates. In my view, this is a  CYA report . The IEA sees trouble ahead. There is no way that investment of the needed amount (which is likely far more than $48 trillion) can be met. With the publication of this report, the IEA can say, “We told you so. You didn’t invest enough. That is why energy supply […]

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OPEC Ministers Agree to Maintain Output Quota

Delegates of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to roll over the group’s production quota, maintaining the group’s current official production output. The decision comes despite concerns over adequate global supply. Libya has struggled to lift its output amid political turmoil in the country. Meanwhile, global growth—and by extension, oil demand—has been picking up. OPEC, which is holding its semiannual meeting in the Austrian capital, agreed to keep its official output quota at 30 million barrels a day, delegates said. OPEC produces about one in three barrels of the world’s crude. Oil prices had been rising most of Wednesday on the expectation the cartel would keep output steady and amid fresh violence in Iraq. Militants there earlier this week overran one of Iraq’s key cities, Mosul, threatening the security of the country’s northern oil fields. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark U.S. oil for July delivery was […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC can't act alone, minister says

Maintaining stable global oil market conditions isn’t something the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can do alone, a top delegate said Wednesday. OPEC members met Wednesday in Vienna for a regular conference. Acting Libyan Oil Minister Omar Ali El Shakmak, serving as conference chairman, told delegates market stability was the top focus of member states. The acting minister said the cartel expects world oil demand to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day and keeping markets satiated required a global effort. Market stability, he said, benefits all market players. "To achieve this, though, OPEC cannot stand alone," he said in his address . "It will need the support and contribution of many stakeholders, who must do their part." The 12 OPEC members combine to produce about 40 percent of the world’s crude oil and their exports represent about 60 percent of the international market. An increase in oil production […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple