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International Energy Agency – Oil Market Report

Oil markets rallied in mid-January as bitterly cold weather in the US pushed up demand for heating fuels, but on average benchmark prices weakened month-on-month (m-o-m). Upcoming seasonal refinery maintenance later put downward pressure on markets before prices rebounded in early February, with ICE Brent futures last trading at $109.25/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $101.25/bbl. Total OECD industry stocks plummeted by a further 56.8 mb in December, taking 4Q13 OECD stock draws to 1.5 mb/d, the steepest quarterly decline since 4Q99. At 2 559 mb, total OECD oil stocks stood 103 mb below their five year average at the end of December, while product stocks covered 28.8 days of forward demand. Global supplies fell by 290 kb/d in January, to 92.1 mb/d, on lower non-OPEC output . Supplies were up 1.50 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), however, as steep growth of 1.90 mb/d in non‐OPEC output and OPEC NGLs surpassed a drop of 390 kb/d in OPEC […]

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Oil Inventories Fell Most Since 1999 on Demand in IEA Estimate

Oil inventories in advanced economies tumbled in the fourth quarter by the most since 1999 because of “surprising robustness” of demand in the U.S. and other developed nations, the International Energy Agency said. The IEA, a Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming nations, also boosted forecasts for global fuel demand this year and the amount of crude that will be required from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Stockpiles of crude and refined products shrank by 1.5 million barrels a day in the last three months of 2013 to end the year at 2.6 billion, their lowest level since 2008, the IEA said. “Far from drowning in oil, markets have had to dig deeply into inventories to meet unexpectedly strong demand,” the agency said. “A glut is looking increasingly elusive. U.S. demand strength likely reflects in part a structural response to the country’s supply bounty,” as surging shale oil output lowers […]

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OPEC sees oil demand growing, but below potential

OPEC said Wednesday in a report from Vienna crude oil demand should increase, though regional economic variances will keep appetites tempered. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its market report for February it expected the world will need about 29.6 million barrels of its crude oil per day in 2014, down 300,000 bpd from the previous year. The 12-member oil cartel said in its report from Vienna its January production of 29.71 million bpd was up 28,000 bpd from the previous month. For cartel members, OPEC said Libya was the stand out in terms of production increases. From Dec. 13 to Jan. 14, Libyan oil production more than doubled to 510,000 bpd, though that’s well below the pre-civil war peak of 1.6 million bpd. For oil producers outside the cartel, OPEC said much of the increase in production is expected to come […]

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Future food; We can grow enough, but how will we distribute it?

When we talk about the future of food, we usually start with world population growth. Estimates say we’ll pass the 8 billion-people mark around the spring of 2024. The worry for decades has been if we will be able to feed all those hungry mouths. The number of hungry mouths may not be the problem. A 2002 United Nations study showed that global agricultural production would exceed the population’s needs just six years after we hit the 8 billion mark. How we distribute and sell food in the future could be far more important – and more interesting.      Moving it “Oil isn’t cheap,” Katie Camden says when asked about the future of food distribution. “Plus, over the next 10 to 20 years, it’s not going to get any cheaper.”   Camden started her career in neuroscience, but then she moved into the food business. She and her husband, […]

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‘Fragile Five’ Is the Latest Club of Emerging Nations in Turmoil

The long-running boom in emerging markets came to be identified, if not propped up, by wide acceptance of the term BRICs, shorthand for the fast-growing countries Brazil, Russia, India and China. Recent turmoil in these and similar markets has produced a rival expression: the Fragile Five. The new name, as coined by a little-known research analyst at Morgan Stanley last summer, identifies Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa and Indonesia as economies that have become too dependent on skittish foreign investment to finance their growth ambitions. The term has caught on in large degree because it highlights the strains that occur when countries place too much emphasis on stoking fast rates of economic growth. The new catchphrase also raises pressing questions about not just the BRICs but about emerging markets in general. The Morgan Stanley report came out in August, when there were reports […]

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IEA Sees Higher Oil Demand on Developed-Nation Economic Recovery

Global oil demand will increase more this year than previously forecast, the International Energy Agency said. A ban on U.S. crude exports may crimp output growth, the Paris-based group said. World consumption will climb by 1.3 million barrels a day, or 1.4 percent, to 92.5 million barrels a day, the IEA said today in its Oil Market Report. The increase of 90,000 barrels a day from last month is the first year of annual demand growth in developed nations since 2010, it said. U.S. restrictions on exports may mean its surging domestic production hits a “crude wall” that curbs further expansion, the IEA said. “Upside risks to oil demand growth are much more relevant this year than the same period last year, where concerns were for downside risks to materialize,” Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Plc in London , said by e-mail yesterday. “Demand-supply metrics in the oil […]

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IEA: Global oil demand for fourth-quarter 2013 revised upward

Global oil consumption during fourth-quarter 2013 was adjusted to 92.1 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency’s most recent Oil Market Report. The total, which marks a 135,000-b/d upward revision from last month’s OMR report, was adjusted because of exceptionally strong US demand since October, partly offset by reduced Chinese fourth-quarter 2013 demand. Global demand for 2014 is expected to rise by 1.3 million b/d to 92.5 million b/d from the 1.2 million b/d rise now envisaged for 2013, to 91.2 million b/d, “an acceleration supported by the likelihood of stronger macroeconomic momentum as the year progresses, IEA said. Led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, crude oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rebounded by 310,000 b/d to 29.82 million b/d in December, reversing 4 months of declines. Iraq was the only member to post a decline. Non-OPEC supplies for the month fell by […]

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Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013

  Crude oil markets firmed in December on seasonally stronger winter demand in the Atlantic basin. Brent prices were supported by continued supply outages in Libya while WTI reflected a surge in domestic refinery throughputs. Prices eased in January, though, with WTI last trading at $93.70/bbl and Brent at $106.35/bbl. The estimate of 4Q13 global oil demand was raised by 135 kb/d on unexpectedly strong US deliveries, partly offset by curtailments in China and elsewhere. For 2013 as a whole, growth is estimated at around 1.2 mb/d, accelerating to 1.3 mb/d in 2014 as the economy continues to recover. Global supplies inched down by 25 kb/d month-on-month in December to 92.23 mb/d, with a seasonal fall in […]

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IEA Sees Higher Oil Demand on Developed-Nation Economic Recovery

Global oil demand will increase more this year than previously forecast, the International Energy Agency said. A ban on U.S. crude exports may crimp output growth, the Paris-based group said. World consumption will climb by 1.3 million barrels a day, or 1.4 percent, to 92.5 million barrels a day, the IEA said today in its Oil Market Report. The increase of 90,000 barrels a day from last month is the first year of annual demand growth in developed nations since 2010, it said. U.S. restrictions on exports may mean its surging domestic production hits a “crude wall” that curbs further expansion, the IEA said. “Upside risks to oil demand growth are much more relevant this year than the same period last year, where concerns were for downside risks to materialize,” Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Plc in London , said by e-mail yesterday. “Demand-supply metrics in the oil […]

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IEA Warns U.S. Oil Output Growth Could Hit a Wall

Surging U.S. oil production could hit a wall in the coming years if the country maintains its ban on crude exports, the International Energy Agency said. America’s crude output has surged in recent years, driven by a boom in shale oil production. Last year, the country’s oil production rose 15%, the fastest absolute annual growth in any country in 20 years. By next year, the IEA estimates imported oil of a similar quality to the crude produced from shale could be almost entirely backed out of U.S. coastal refineries. However, the U.S. tightly regulates exports of its oil, limiting the market for its new oil supply. "The growing volumes of light tight oil that cannot leave North America are increasingly posing a challenge to industry, putting the spotlight on the U.S. crude oil export ban," the IEA said in its monthly oil market report. For now, refinery, pipeline and […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple