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Iran deal could spell trouble for OPEC, Mideast

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, Dec. 6 (UPI) — Iran’s expected return to full oil production after several years of U.S.-led sanctions over its nuclear program will sharpen its feud with its longtime rival, Saudi Arabia, which will have to cope with Iraq’s mounting output as well, while the United States moves toward self-sufficiency. If the landmark interim agreement reached in Geneva Nov. 24 expands into a more lasting deal, Iran can be expected to go all-out to restore its lost market share, sharpening the friction with Saudi Arabia at a time when the Middle East is on a knife-edge over a potential region-wide conflict between the two branches of Islam these states represent. Iran’s full return to the market could take as long as two years, as production is restored and foreign investment sought to upgrade Iran’s antiquated oil industry to counter the declining output from mature fields that […]

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OPEC Maintains Crude-Production Target at Vienna Meeting

OPEC, content with current oil price levels, agreed to keep the group’s crude output ceiling unchanged at least until June even as Libya, Iran and Iraq plan to increase exports in coming months. Maintaining the 30 million-barrel-a-day target for the 12-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will ensure price stability , Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said yesterday. There will be no need to reduce the cap at the next meeting, Libyan Oil Minister Abdulbari al-Arusi said. “The big question is what OPEC will do if output from Libya and Iran returns to the market next year,” Carsten Fritsch , an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt , said yesterday. He said that will probably be discussed in June. Some analysts warn that excess supply, including U.S. shale oil and a potential resurgence in exports from Iran, Libya and Iraq, […]

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OPEC mindful of North American oil growth

The president of OPEC’s 164th conference in Vienna said Thursday the 12-member cartel expects North American oil production to increase. Kuwaiti Oil Minister Mustafa Jassim Mohammad al-Shamali delivered opening remarks to the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, serving as president of the conference in Vienna. Shamali said the cartel expected oil demand to increase because of the gradual recovery under way in the global economy. World oil demand is expected to increase by 1 million barrels per day as the global economy expands, he said. “Non-OPEC oil supply is also expected to rise in 2014 by 1.2 million bpd,” he said in his remarks Wednesday. “This will be mainly due to the anticipated growth in North America and Brazil.” OPEC, in its monthly market report for November, said the Americas are expected to lead in terms of oil production growth for […]

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Officials from Iraq, Iran and Libya Expect to Increase Crude Production

;The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries kept its production ceiling unchanged Wednesday despite the threat of rising supply that could weigh on prices.  For the better part of a year, members of OPEC, a cartel of some of the world’s biggest oil producers, has been studying the possible market effects of increasing North American output. But now, the threat of surging supply from OPEC members themselves looms. The cartel pumps more than one in three barrels of crude consumed globally and uses its production ceiling, currently at 30 million barrels a day, to keep prices in check. But as its meeting here wrapped up, members didn’t express any consensus on what—if anything—the group would do about the prospect of new output from Iraq, Iran and Libya. Iraq now is producing more annually than it has in at least the last 20 years–and has shown little appetite to throttle […]

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2013 different year for OPEC

OPEC ministers in Vienna are dealing with a market situation where there’s more oil, not less, available to international consumers, a commodities analyst said. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meet Wednesday in Vienna. OPEC this year has been forced to react to supply disruptions in member state Libya as well as oil production gains from North America. Edward Morse, head of global commodities research at Citigroup, told The Washington Post the cartel’s leaders are expected to mull the geopolitical future of member states. “Unlike a year ago, most of the issues in the market that are geopolitical in nature could lead to more oil, not less,” he said in an interview published Monday. “You can’t take any more Libyan oil off the market; you can only put it back on.” The International Energy Agency last year called on its member states […]

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Iran, Iraq put OPEC on notice of big oil increases

Iran and Iraq on Tuesday put OPEC on notice of substantial oil output increases to come, saying others in the producer cartel will need to give way to make room for them. Speaking ahead of an OPEC meeting, oil ministers for the two countries — rivals as the group’s second and third biggest producers after Saudi Arabia — said they were targeting 4 million barrels a day, growth of about one million bpd apiece. Neither country can expect to reach those goals any time soon, but both are keen to prepare the ground for special treatment should the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting […]

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OPEC Will Probably Maintain Current Output Target, Delegates Say

OPEC will probably stick with its current production target as demand for its crude next year will be at a similar level, said three delegates from the group. The 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will make that decision in two days, when ministers meet in Vienna, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because discussions are private. The three delegates spoke to Bloomberg before Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi arrived at his hotel in Vienna. “The market is doing well for the past two years, price is doing well, supply and demand in equilibrium, inventories are in the right position,” al-Naimi told reporters. “The market is in the best condition it can be.” Rising supply from outside OPEC, including surging U.S. shale oil production, has coincided this year with disruptions in some members, such as Libya and Iraq , while Iranian exports remain curtailed because of […]

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OPEC Inaction Masks Looming Supply Glut in 2014: Energy Markets

Even with OPEC forecast to keep its output quota unchanged at a meeting this week, falling oil demand and prospects for increased supply from some member states mean the group’s leader, Saudi Arabia, will have to cut production anyway. The kingdom and its allies Kuwait , Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will need to produce about 2 million barrels a day less in 2014 to prevent a glut, the Centre for Global Energy Studies predicts. That’s equal to annual revenue of about $80 billion at today’s prices. The 12-nation group meets in Vienna on Dec. 4 and will reaffirm its collective limit of 30 million barrels a day, according to 22 of 24 analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News . OPEC is already producing above target, even with output disrupted in member states Iraq , Libya and Iran . Demand for the group’s crude will decline by […]

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OPEC Rift Emerging Over Iraq Output, Possible Return of Iran

Tensions are emerging within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries over which member countries should trim oil production to make room for a resurgence in Iraqi exports and the possible return of more Iranian crude to world markets if sanctions are eased. There is no expectation of a decision to cut back at the OPEC cartel’s meeting in Vienna on Wednesday. The group of 12 of the world’s largest producers, though long riven by squabbling, has kept its overall production ceiling at 30 million barrels a day since December 2011. OPEC expects overall demand for its crude to drop by about 300,000 barrels a day next year and some members are pushing to trim output, according to people familiar with the debate. Members will have to decide whether to cut production as early as the first half of the year, with the risk that short-term global supply might […]

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IEA and Emerging Countries to Collaborate More Closely

The International Energy Agency and six emerging economies including China and India agreed to pursue stronger cooperation, the IEA said on Wednesday in a bid to strengthen ties with non-members whose share in global oil demand has grown rapidly. The initiative to form an “association” between the West’s energy watchdog, combining 28 developed economies, and non-members is aimed at boosting ties on energy security, data sharing and energy market analysis, the Paris-based group said. China, the world’s top energy consumer, India, Russia, South Africa, Brazil and Indonesia have signed the joint declaration, a non-legally binding agreement. As oil demand growth has shifted from developed to emerging countries over the past decade, the IEA has looked to non-members to preserve its importance as an international agency. “Energy governance is an increasingly important element of the global energy economy,” Maria van der Hoeven, the […]

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