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IEA World Outlook: Six Key Trends Shaping the Energy Future

khosla-biofuels-vin.jpg Thomas K. Grose Thanks to “fracking,” the United States is reaching the top spot among world oil producers sooner than expected, and is “well on its way to realizing the American dream” of energy independence, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Tuesday. “But this does not mean that the world is on the cusp of a new era of oil abundance,” the IEA warned in its closely watched annual World Energy Outlook. Instead, the agency predicted that no other country will replicate the United States’ success with hydraulic fracturing and other unconventional technologies that have led to the North American boom in oil and natural gas production. (See related ” Interactive: Breaking Fuel From Rock ,” ” The Great Shale Gas Rush ,” and ” The New Oil Landscape .”) And by the mid-2020s, the Middle East—the world’s only source of low-cost oil—will again be unchallenged as the […]

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IEA sees steady decline in OPEC output

PARIS, Nov. 14 (UPI) — The International Energy Agency said in its monthly market report, released Thursday, oil production from OPEC declined in October for the third straight month. The IEA, which has headquarters in Paris, said cuts from Saudi Arabia helped push oil production down from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for the third month in a row last month. OPEC, in its monthly report, said its members produced, on average, 29.89 million barrels of oil per day in October. The IEA said OPEC ministers are expected to keep their production benchmark of 30 million bpd in place when they meet in Vienna next month. The IEA said oil-producing countries outside the 12-member OPEC cartel recorded a “record-high” output, which lifted global oil supplies by 600,000 bpd in October to 91.8 million bpd. In its World Outlook Report for 2013, published earlier this week, the […]

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Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013

  Benchmark Brent and WTI oil futures eased in September and early October following plans for Syria to dispose of its chemical weapons and direct talks between Iran and the US at the UN General Assembly. The US government shutdown added downward pressure on prices. Brent was last trading at $110/bbl and WTI at $101.25/bbl. Global oil supplies declined by 625 kb/d to 91.12 mb/d in September on steeply lower OPEC output. Non-OPEC supply growth for 2013 is forecast to average 1.1 mb/d, to 54.7 mb/d, rising to a near-record 1.7 mb/d next year. OPEC crude supplies slipped below 30 mb/d for the first time in almost two years, led by steep drops in Libya and Iraq. Output fell by 645 kb/d to 29.99 mb/d despite Saudi output topping 10 mb/d for a third month running. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ was raised by 100 kb/d to 29.6 mb/d for 4Q13. Recent […]

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Oil markets balanced, OPEC says

VIENNA, Nov. 12 (UPI) — The global supply of oil increased in October in part because of production from countries outside the Middle East, OPEC said in its monthly market report. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries published its monthly market report Tuesday. “Preliminary figures indicate that global oil supply increased 480,000 barrels per day in October to average 90.37 million bpd,” the report said. “Non-OPEC supply saw growth of 470,000 bpd while OPEC crude production was almost unchanged.” Trends in North America mean the U.S. and Canadian economies are relying less on foreign producers to meet their oil and natural gas needs. OPEC said in its report the share of its crude oil in global production declined to 33.1 percent in October. OPEC said its members produced, on average, 29.89 million bpd in October, a slight increase from the previous month’s report. Libya’s recent national security and labor […]

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Asia taking on more of world’s oil, OPEC says

VIENNA, Nov. 8 (UPI) — Asian economies are expected to account for a significant portion of the global demand for oil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said. OPEC published its 283-page World Oil Outlook Thuesday. It said oil demand from India is expected to more than double from its 2012 level to 9.3 million barrels per day by 2035. Chinese oil demand follows a similar trend, with an 80 percent increase from 2012 levels to 17.5 million barrels per day in 2035. “This will result in a significant change in future oil movements, which is projected to flow increasingly eastward, attracted by demand increases in Asia,” the report said. The cartel said it expected oil demand to increase from the global level of 107.3 million bpd in 2012 to 108.5 million bpd by 2035. “Of this increase, developing Asia accounts for 88 percent, while demand in China, India […]

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Asia taking on more of world's oil, OPEC says

VIENNA, Nov. 8 (UPI) — Asian economies are expected to account for a significant portion of the global demand for oil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said. OPEC published its 283-page World Oil Outlook Thuesday. It said oil demand from India is expected to more than double from its 2012 level to 9.3 million barrels per day by 2035. Chinese oil demand follows a similar trend, with an 80 percent increase from 2012 levels to 17.5 million barrels per day in 2035. “This will result in a significant change in future oil movements, which is projected to flow increasingly eastward, attracted by demand increases in Asia,” the report said. The cartel said it expected oil demand to increase from the global level of 107.3 million bpd in 2012 to 108.5 million bpd by 2035. “Of this increase, developing Asia accounts for 88 percent, while demand in China, India […]

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OPEC Expects North American Shale Oil Output to Jump

LONDON—Two years after dismissing North America’s shale-oil boom as “marginal,” OPEC changed its tune Thursday, acknowledging new extraction technology could sharply cut the need for the group’s own oil. In its annual World Oil Outlook, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said new oil supply from Canada and the U.S. would reach 4.9 million barrels a day within five years. That is more than double last year’s forecast of 1.7 million barrels a day by 2018. As a result, global needs for the group’s own crude will be one million barrels a day less by 2018, OPEC said. OPEC, which groups some of the world’s biggest producers, has been slow to recognize the scale of North America’s oil boom. In the same report in 2011, it said “shale oil should not be viewed as anything more than a source of marginal additions” to global supply. Yet this year […]

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Brent Crude Traders Claim Proof BFOE Boys Rigged Market

Four longtime traders in the global oil market claim in a lawsuit that the prices for buying and selling crude are fixed — and that they can prove it. Some of the world’s biggest oil companies including BP Plc , Statoil ASA , and Royal Dutch Shell Plc conspired with Morgan Stanley and energy traders including Vitol Group to manipulate the closely watched spot prices for Brent crude oil for more than a decade, they allege. The North Sea Brent benchmark is used to price the majority of the world’s crude and helps determine where costs are headed for fuels including gasoline and heating oil. The case, which follows at least six other U.S. lawsuits alleging price-fixing in the Brent market, provides what appears to be the most detailed description yet of the alleged manipulations and lays out a possible road map for investigators. The traders who brought it […]

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EIA: OPEC October Oil Output Down 100,000 Barrels a Day Vs. September

-Saudi Arabian output off 300,000 b/d in month, to 9.8 million barrels a day -Unrest in Libya cuts output by one million barrels a day compared with a year earlier -OPEC October output 29.7 million barrels a day, EIA estimates By David Bird NEW YORK–Crude-oil output from OPEC dropped 100,000 barrels a day in October from September as a slight gain in still-reduced flows in Libya partly offset a 300,000-barrel-a-day drop in output from Saudi Arabia, a U.S. government report released Thursday estimated. Production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries averaged 29.7 million barrel a day in October, down 1 million barrels a day from a year earlier due to labor unrest that has disrupted normal Libyan oil flows, the Energy Information Administration said. The EIA, the analytical and statistical wings of the Energy Department, said output from Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, averaged 9.8 […]

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