Category: Peak Oil

As our civilization proceeds down the slope of the post-peak-oil curve, global trade will become more and more expensive, so our economies will naturally localize. The energy-efficiency benefits of localized economies are obvious to us, but there are also social and even psycho-social benefits that aren’t often contemplated. I had the good fortune to work with respected crowd-behavior expert Alan Berkowitz several years ago on a film project about “bystander behavior.” Berkowitz is a psychologist and sociologist who advises, writes, and speaks on bystander behavior, as well as a number of other health and social justice subjects. He founded and edited the Report on Social Norms . I later interviewed him for my documentary, GrowthBusters: Hooked on Growth . I was curious about why human beings react so irrationally to evidence we are harming our planet and the life support systems on which […]

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The key take-away from the US EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook released [in December] jumps out in the graph below: US crude oil production should peak in 2016 at a level 26% higher than that projected just one year ago. That’s an additional 2 million barrels a day (mb/d), pushing the US total to 9.6 mb/d within three years—the same total that the US produced during its first peak in 1970, as an acquaintance at the EIA pointed out last week. That’s three more break-through years like the last two. Then flat. Finito. As some wag asked last week, is that really a recipe for a continuing oil revolution or an oil retirement party? [1]   Data: EIA’s Early Release Annual Energy Outlook, 2014.  From Ron Patterson. [A] full appraisal of the challenge posed by oil depletion must extend beyond geological assessments of resource size to […]

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World Yearly When will Peak Oil actually arrive? There has been considerable debate on that point recently. Well if you are talking about “Conventional Crude Oil” it arrived in 2005. But in many cases unconventional crude oil works just as well so I think we must count that. I will comment on that at the end of this post below. The chart below is kb/d with the last data point, 2013, is the average through October. Averaging the first 10 months of 2013, World oil production was up only 66,000 barrels per day. And without the US LTO input, world production would have been down 807,000 barrels per day, lower than the 2005 level. And it is all about LTO, primarily it is about three oil plays, the Bakken, Eagle Ford and the Permia. The data for this chart was taken from the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report . The […]

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Pulitzer prize-winning author and energy analyst Daniel Yergin kicked off the 2014 MIT Energy Conference Friday by looking back at big changes in the energy landscape since the conference launched in 2006—and ahead at three visions for the future of energy. Dr. Yergin, Vice President of IHS and author of two bestselling books on the history of energy, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power and The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World, said much has changed over the last decade in the energy world. From “Peak Oil” to Energy Abundance? “It was the year of Peak Oil,” Yergin said, looking back at 2005, when the MIT Energy Initiative was launched and the first MIT Energy Conference conceived. America and the world were concerned about rising global oil demand […]

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With a growing population and improving diets there is a need to double our food supply by 2050. Identify three measures you would take to meet this demand. Identify one of your measures from your list and post your solution into the discussion – be prepared to defend your choice! That is a big question to throw in a climate change course. I am presently doing an online course – Climate Change: Challenges and solutions – offered by the University of Exeter (UK). So please indulge me as I also use this blog for some climate course work. This article is for week 6, section 6.5 of the course on ‘Tackling food security’. Food security is one helluva big area to try and come to terms with. Earth’s population is just over 7 billion people. It is projected by the United Nations in a June 2013 report on global […]

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Unusually cold weather will take a bite out of U.S. economic growth this quarter, but a rebound seems likely on the horizon and expectations for stronger growth this year have not changed. Economists estimate that freezing temperatures and the ice and snow storms that have blanketed much of the nation will shave as much as half a percentage point from gross domestic product in the first quarter. That comes on top of the drag from efforts by businesses to sell off bloated inventories and a one-time hit from the expiration of benefits for the long-term unemployed. "The slowdown is testing everyone’s optimism about the economy, but so far it’s just a soft patch. The economy will regain strength," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester Pennsylvania. "Outside housing, we don’t believe the recent data signal a change in fundamentals." Moody’s Analytics […]

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drought map There is sound science that says there is likely to be big trouble, even in supplying Austin’s current population with enough water. Federal officials have designated portions of 11 drought-ridden Western and Central states as primary natural disaster areas. Map from UDSA.gov. Image from NBCDFW.com. First of three . I met a traveller from an antique land Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand, Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command Tell that its sculptor well those passions read Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things, The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed. And on the pedestal these words appear: `My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings: Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!’ Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that […]

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Page added on February 22, 2014 Peak oil is the ever approaching, if not already passed point in which the world’s crude oil production rate reaches its maximum output, and then falls into decline. 86 million barrels of crude oil are produced everyday, however as a planet, we are using around 88 million barrels a day (Transition Culture 2007), showing an uneven consumption rate which will aid the decline of available oil. The International Energy Agency stated that there could be as much as 20,000 billion barrels (Transition Culture 2007) of oil under the planet’s surface but that much of it will remain undiscovered. Additionally, a considerable percentage of oil has been found under protected sites such as reindeer sanctuaries in Alaska and the newly found oil in the Arctic; the question is whether the value of this oil is worth the destruction of these ecosystems and environments as […]

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More Feb 21 (Reuters) – Exxon Mobil Corp, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, said on Friday its crude oil and natural gas reserves rose slightly in 2013, lifted by projects in U.S. shale fields and Abu Dhabi. Proved reserve additions of 1.6 billion barrels oil equivalent from places like the Permian Basin inTexas and the Bakken Shale in North Dakota helped Exxon replace 103 percent of its 2013 output, theIrving, Texas company said in a statement. In 2012, Exxon’s reserve replacement ratio, a key measure of growth for investors, was 115 percent. At year end, Exxon’s proved reserves totaled 25.2 billion oil-equivalent barrels. The reserves were 53 percent liquids, which typically bring higher profits. Shares of Exxon fell 9 cents to $95.28 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Copyright 2014 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions. More

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It is unfortunate, however, that we cannot look at the real problem. Unless we can understand the problem as it really is, it is impossible to find solutions that might actually be helpful. [1]   MIXED MESSAGES   The message behind messages like that one aren’t usually anyone’s first choice for contemplation, planning, or doing. Happier yarns about energy abundance are certainly more appealing. Reality being what it is, however, we continue to ignore that to our longer-term detriment. “Appealing” has a limited lifespan, and when the misleading half-truths are what most citizens hear most of the time, that timer will wind down sooner than we’re prepared for. That is definitely not a good message…. The bottom line is: If we want oil, we are going to need high prices. That’s what peak oil is all about –  progressively higher prices that are […]

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