Category: Peak Oil

Page added on February 19, 2014 The idea that global oil production was nearing its peak , only to plateau and then decline was a common view in the energy world for many years. The geophysicist M. King Hubbard predicted in the 1950’s that US oil production would peak in the 1970’s, a forecast that held true until technology allowed companies to economically extract oil and gas from tight geologic formations like shale. The recent surge in US liquids output – crude plus natural gas liquids (NGLs) – quieted the peak oil community. A well-known, largely peak oil-focused website – The Oil Drum – shut down in 2013, an event some considered the death knell of the peak oil theory. But not so fast says Steven Kopits from energy business analysis firm Douglas-Westwood. Total global oil supply growth since 2005 – 5.8 million barrels per day – came from […]

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One might have the impression that hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of shale deposits is the answer to world energy security. Certainly fracking has received much attention and investment, but its prospects must be considered in a broader context. In the US, where practically all such operations have been conducted to date, fracking now accounts for 40% of domestic gas production and 30% of oil production. The price of natural gas has plummeted, and overall US oil production has increased for the first time since 1970, which had otherwise been falling in accordance with the predictions M King Hubbert made in 1956.  © Shutterstock However, this last point is the salient one. Sources of unconventional oil (listed below) such as tight oil (or ‘shale oil’ in popular discourse) are only commercially viable because the need to match the declining rate of conventional oil production has raised oil prices. It is the […]

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Surging Oil Industry Brings Opportunity To Rural California The idea that global oil production was nearing its peak , only to plateau and then decline was a common view in the energy world for many years. The geophysicist M. King Hubbard predicted in the 1950’s that US oil production would peak in the 1970’s, a forecast that held true until technology allowed companies to economically extract oil and gas from tight geologic formations like shale. The recent surge in US liquids output – crude plus natural gas liquids (NGLs) – quieted the peak oil community. A well-known, largely peak oil-focused website – The Oil Drum – shut down in 2013, an event some considered the death knell of the peak oil theory. But not so fast says Steven Kopits from energy business analysis firm Douglas-Westwood. Total global oil supply growth since 2005 – 5.8 million barrels per day – […]

Click here to view full article at breakingenergy.com

Our guest blog today comes from Steve Andrews, who is  a retired energy consultant and contributor to the Peak Oil Review, reachable at [email protected] . We reached out to CERA to determine its interest in providing a response, but did not hear back. “False optimism leads to very poor investment decisions.”: Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist, GMO Ten years ago this month the Oil & Gas Journal published a story from CERAWeek—an annual elite conference for the oil industry put on by Cambridge Energy Research Associates—that bears revisiting. Why go back? Three reasons. First, CERA arguably has maintained the highest profile of any oil industry analytical shop since at least the turn of the century, thanks in large part to founder Daniel Yergin’s reputation. Every time there is a surprise in world oil supply, he’s the media’s go-to guru. When the National Petroleum Council convenes a world oil […]

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THE PREMISE Population is a sensitive subject, but it is noteworthy that by 2050, oil supply will have fallen to a level able to support less than half the current population in its present way of life [1] Oil buyers apparently know the Western world’s economic recovery will boost consumption, since growth and oil use are aligned. That’s not all. They also know that the math doesn’t work: Prices can’t go into gradual, long-term decline, or even stay flat, when the world’s conventional oil fields are in fairly rapid decline. Exotic production – oil sands, biofuels, natural gas liquids – are supposed to fill the gap. But this so-called unconventional production is highly expensive and quite possibly insufficient to cover the drop off in cheap, conventional production. Prices will rise to the point that demand will have to level off or fall. [2] […]

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OPEC Update and EIA Short Term Energy Outlook The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report  is just out with OPEC crude only production numbers for January 2014. OPEC Crude production was up 28,000 bp/d in January but that was after December production had been revised upward by 240,000 bp/d. November production was revised down by 51,000 bp/d. Of course Saudi is always the one to watch because it is generally believed that they have spare capacity. I think they had spare capacity back in 2011 but are now producing flat out, just like every other OPEC producer. Saudi crude production was down 115,000 bp/d in January but that was after December production had been revised upward by 119,000 bp/d and November revised up 52,000 bp/d. I think that surge upward early in 2013 is a telling indication. That was Manifa coming on line. Libya had the biggest gain in January, […]

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Every now and then, in reading about global warming and other environmental issues, I come across a reference to ‘peak oil’, usually as yet another example of how humans blindly pursue their own short-term interests, scarcely heeding the crisis that is waiting for them ahead. And of course we humans do have a tendency to do just that, some of the time, at least. Anyway, I marked down ‘peak oil’ as a subject to read about, and after some time at the computer, protected by air-conditioning that is doubtless increasing the heat outside, offer you the results of my reading. First, ‘peak oil’ is as contentious as AGW itself. The phrase itself prompts 55,600,000 hits on Google, and there are a dozen or so variants of the phrase as well. You may not be surprised to learn that there are ‘peak oil deniers’ […]

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For the first time since the industrial revolution the world is moving into an era without a dominant energy source. That’s the assertion of global oil giant BP, which is also offering a reality check on the notion of peak oil. The company’s general manager of global energy markets and US economics, Mark Finley, is adamant that natural gas, coal and oil will all scrap for the top spot over the next two decades. The assertion comes on the back of a January release of BP’s latest 2035 energy market outlook, which highlighted a convergence of the fuels at the top of the energy tree in 20 years’ time. BP’s peak oil rejection Source: BP Energy Market Outlook 2035. “We’ve never seen this before,” Finley explains of the fight for the top spot during a recent speech at Columbia University in New York. “Personally, I think it poses some […]

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For the first time since the industrial revolution the world is moving into an era without a dominant energy source. That’s the assertion of global oil giant BP, which is also offering a reality check on the notion of peak oil. The company’s general manager of global energy markets and US economics, Mark Finley, is adamant that natural gas, coal and oil will all scrap for the top spot over the next two decades. The assertion comes on the back of a January release of BP’s latest 2035 energy market outlook, which highlighted a convergence of the fuels at the top of the energy tree in 20 years’ time. BP’s peak oil rejection Source: BP Energy Market Outlook 2035. “We’ve never seen this before,” Finley explains of the fight for the top spot during a recent speech at Columbia University in New York. “Personally, I think it poses some […]

Click here to view full article at www.businessspectator.com.au