Much of the information for this post comes from data at shaleprofile , and assessments by the USGS . In addition a paper published in Jan 2022 by Wardana Saputra et al was an excellent resource. The basic method used in the is analysis is covered in an earlier post , essentially the convolution of average well profiles with the monthly completion rate over time is used to model future output. I focus on the period starting in Jan 2010 and consider only horizontal tight oil wells in the analysis. Future well profiles are estimated and several future scenarios for completion rate are used, clearly the future is unknown so future completion rates and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) for wells completed in the future can only be guessed at. In order to make such a guess I start with the USGS assessments for the Permian basin where the mean […]